Pattern Novemburrr

[NickyBGuarantee]

We need the cold rain anyway ..well I don’t but everyone surrounding indeed does .. we will accept this pattern with open arms .. I wonder how BAM spins this

 

[LukeBarrette]

roxboro specialView attachment 95303

Roanoke special

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Zero cold enough air but also zero south East ridge from blocking .. the mother load of AVERAGE

 

[NoSnowATL]

We need the cold rain anyway ..well I don’t but everyone surrounding indeed does .. we will accept this pattern with open arms .. I wonder how BAM spins this

True we do need the rain but the wet season is about to start so we should be good.

 

[Chazwin]

Zero cold enough air but also zero south East ridge from blocking .. the mother load of AVERAGE View attachment 95310

Pretty much a repeat of last December

 

[SD]

Trying to get the ridge back into AK on the gefs. Depending on how far N/E we can get it this might play well for the 2nd week of Dec

 

[Philstorm91]

Honestly I wouldn't mind getting some dreary cool weather bouts in early December. If the pattern can get more favorable for Arctic air outbreaks and or snow deeper into winter, its still a win for me on the Gulf coast.

 

[Webberweather53]

Same comment applies but go off ?

No, not at all actually. A day 11-15 ensemble mean that agrees w/ the other 2 major ensemble means (see earlier comment in this thread) has a lot more weight than the operational GFS you thought Judah was talking about. If the GFS Ensemble was showing a cold/snowy pattern you probably would be singing a much different tune.

 

[Webberweather53]

View attachment 95314

Trying to get the ridge back into AK on the gefs. Depending on how far N/E we can get it this might play well for the 2nd week of Dec

If the -NAO wasn't there, the SE US would be torching w/ the ridge placement over the Aleutians.

 

[smast16]

Well on the bright side this type of setup only favors short duration warm ups but it also favors almost no cold. If you like highs 55-65 and lows 30-40 this is it

70's or 30's for highs. Bring the cold or Ridge us back to shorts.

 

[Webberweather53]

A lot of the pieces are definitely (still) generally there for cold air damming after Thanksgiving, the cut-off upper low near Baja California I've been watching closely for my own forecasts out here has been varying wildly from run-to-run in the models.

 

[Tarheel1]

Had a squall come through, no stickage

 

[SD]

Come on ridge

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 95317
Come on ridge

SO closeeeeeee you can do it!!!!

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 95317
Come on ridge

Need that little trough out in the Pacific to move east of HI. Blocking looks good. Looks like nice fall weather for the east. That will be pleasant.

Also, as long as the pattern isn't complete trash, there's no need to worry about it taking weeks to get cold in the SE. If things reshuffle correctly, it will get cold in a matter of days. It's really not all that far away.

Lastly, a winter storm in early December is quite unlikely. It would be nice, but I wouldn't worry too much about it. A few tweaks out in the Pacific, come mid/late December, we could be looking at a true, legitimate opportunity.

 

[SD]

Euro/eps around 42 for RDU Tuesday that'll be impressive if we have full sun.

 

[Tarheel1]

View attachment 95317
Come on ridge

Warming Alaska. = pants tent

 

[SD]

According to some droughts don't happen

 

[Webberweather53]

View attachment 95317
Come on ridge

Longwave pattern looks good for the one-man SW US weather forum!

 

[Webberweather53]

Hope these trends stick going forward.