smast16
Member
I thought we weren't going into a drought?
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Pattern Novemburrr
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Just for the heck of it, thought I'd share what LC had to say this morning!
Larry Cosgrove
Chief Meteorologist,WEATHERAmerica
3m
Watch how the snow cover expands. It is very important to future weather. You may recall that just two weeks ago, snow and ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere was struggling to build. Since the snowpack is in many ways the key to creating a true Arctic air mass (little sunlight + clear/dry atmosphere + deep, extensive white/subfreezing surface = cAk values), you can easily size up your chances for wintry conditions at lower latitudes by viewing the expanse and depth of snowfall to your north. We have near-complete placement of snow in unpopulated Canada. Eurasian snow fields are already like those you might find in January. The Siberian snow is often tied to Arctic vortex formation to the right of the Ural Mountains. A cyclonic motherlode centered near Irkutsk in the dead of winter is often linked to -AO ridging around the North Pole into the Yukon and Northwest Territories in Canada. If that be the case, you set up chances for dumps of bitter cold values from Russia into North America. And should there be snow-saturated ground all the way below the U.S. border, winter weather lovers will be smiling. Now keep in mind that we are at least a month away from setting up any kind of "Siberian Express" or "Yukon Blast" scenarios in the U.S. Most of what I see in the next two weeks below the border with Canada are either rain or change-to-snow set-ups over the Midwest, Great lakes, and interior Northeast. But you have to admit, colder and snowier turns are literally on the horizon.
Larry Cosgrove
Chief Meteorologist,WEATHERAmerica
3m
Watch how the snow cover expands. It is very important to future weather. You may recall that just two weeks ago, snow and ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere was struggling to build. Since the snowpack is in many ways the key to creating a true Arctic air mass (little sunlight + clear/dry atmosphere + deep, extensive white/subfreezing surface = cAk values), you can easily size up your chances for wintry conditions at lower latitudes by viewing the expanse and depth of snowfall to your north. We have near-complete placement of snow in unpopulated Canada. Eurasian snow fields are already like those you might find in January. The Siberian snow is often tied to Arctic vortex formation to the right of the Ural Mountains. A cyclonic motherlode centered near Irkutsk in the dead of winter is often linked to -AO ridging around the North Pole into the Yukon and Northwest Territories in Canada. If that be the case, you set up chances for dumps of bitter cold values from Russia into North America. And should there be snow-saturated ground all the way below the U.S. border, winter weather lovers will be smiling. Now keep in mind that we are at least a month away from setting up any kind of "Siberian Express" or "Yukon Blast" scenarios in the U.S. Most of what I see in the next two weeks below the border with Canada are either rain or change-to-snow set-ups over the Midwest, Great lakes, and interior Northeast. But you have to admit, colder and snowier turns are literally on the horizon.
This on the other hand, sounds down right FUGLY!
Judah Cohen
@judah47
·
1m
Blow torch alert! The GFS week-2 forecast of a deepening trough in the Gulf of Alaska and the tropospheric #polarvortex returning to near the North Pole is setting up a circulation pattern conducive to well above normal temperatures across the US east of the Rockies in December.
Judah Cohen
@judah47
·
1m
Blow torch alert! The GFS week-2 forecast of a deepening trough in the Gulf of Alaska and the tropospheric #polarvortex returning to near the North Pole is setting up a circulation pattern conducive to well above normal temperatures across the US east of the Rockies in December.
I stopped reading after Gfs week 2 forecastThis on the other hand, sounds down right FUGLY!
Judah Cohen
@judah47
·
1m
Blow torch alert! The GFS week-2 forecast of a deepening trough in the Gulf of Alaska and the tropospheric #polarvortex returning to near the North Pole is setting up a circulation pattern conducive to well above normal temperatures across the US east of the Rockies in December.
It all about getting the absolute perfect wind direction to take advantage of any rise in elevation to get the lift necessary
You'd have to have wind blowing the perfect direction down the length of the lake and probably some type of 850mb disturbance to generate lift.
Shaggy
Member
I'm amazed at how quickly we returned to dry conditions here. We were running +15 inch surpluses over the summer but then .I'd August the faucet turned off and we have become very dry. There's a pond near work that had water a foot or so above normal bank full all summer and it's now a solid foot or so below bank full.
Look at these dewpoints Saturday morning
If anyone can actually get the wind to die down temps will really bottom out that seems a little unlikely though
If anyone can actually get the wind to die down temps will really bottom out that seems a little unlikely though
The GFS and the 12km NAM are pretty far apart on temps tomorrow afternoon.
NAM
NAM
Avalanche
Member
Odd phenomenon today. Had just a few cumulous clouds around with light rain under sunshine. Ive seen it happen in Florida, and on an occasion here, but that was summer.
Avalanche
Member
Same here and we didn't get much rain in the summer. Yes, we need a good CAD rain. Or snow.
Over the past couple of years, we all have heard the whole “snow cover brings colder air” or “we need more sea ice” A little research into the matter and I discovered a great deal on the differences between them. Most of us know that in September is typically when Ice has reached its yearly minimal and begins to build. We all have seen post on twitter comparing sea ice rate of loss or gain to previous years in September. This is meaningless, more importantly it is the total ice loss through the melting season that seasonal questions can begin having answers (Poles Apart, 2012).
Snow cover of course, is easier to predict and know the outcome. Just follow the winds and the cold temps will follow. However, sea ice has a huge impact on our weather in the south.
It has long been hypothesized that sea ice plays a major role in determining climates across the northern hemisphere. According to Koenigk, Caian, & Nikulin, G. et al. (2016 pp 317-337) “sea ice variations in eight different Arctic regions on the winter climate conditions in mid and high northern latitudes has been analyzed using ERA-interim reanalysis and satellite data. We used detrended data and performed both correlation and composites analyses to assess the seasonal predictability connected to the different ice areas”. They go on and say, “starting from November, we find a winter SLP response, which resembles the NAO or AO pattern for the first three areas (negative NAO/AO after low ice); high ice in Laptev/East Siberian Seas is followed by reduced SLP over large parts of Europe, northern Canada and eastern Asia. Related to this, the impact of November sea ice on blocking over the Euro-Atlantic region is substantially increased compared to September ice. Particularly ice variations along the Siberian coast are of importance for the blocking. The winter SLP response to September ice area variations does not show strong similarity to the NAO-pattern”.
After studying the research paper, I found that November sea ice in areas that cover from Greenland and Scandinavian seas play a major role in signaling the sign of NAO in the previous winter. While anomalies in the Labrador Sea suggest a more NAO-pattern. Some have speculated that there is a link between ice anomalies and the stratosphere.
We cannot take a comparison from September to November as being any kind of sign for winter. However, November sea ice has data to back up its clam on determining the blocking and teleconnections across the northern hemisphere.
In case you want to read more here are my sources:
Koenigk, T., Caian, M., Nikulin, G. et al. Regional Arctic sea ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions. Clim Dyn 46, 317–337 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2586-1
Poles apart: A record-breaking summer and winter (Beitler, 2012).
National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Snow cover of course, is easier to predict and know the outcome. Just follow the winds and the cold temps will follow. However, sea ice has a huge impact on our weather in the south.
It has long been hypothesized that sea ice plays a major role in determining climates across the northern hemisphere. According to Koenigk, Caian, & Nikulin, G. et al. (2016 pp 317-337) “sea ice variations in eight different Arctic regions on the winter climate conditions in mid and high northern latitudes has been analyzed using ERA-interim reanalysis and satellite data. We used detrended data and performed both correlation and composites analyses to assess the seasonal predictability connected to the different ice areas”. They go on and say, “starting from November, we find a winter SLP response, which resembles the NAO or AO pattern for the first three areas (negative NAO/AO after low ice); high ice in Laptev/East Siberian Seas is followed by reduced SLP over large parts of Europe, northern Canada and eastern Asia. Related to this, the impact of November sea ice on blocking over the Euro-Atlantic region is substantially increased compared to September ice. Particularly ice variations along the Siberian coast are of importance for the blocking. The winter SLP response to September ice area variations does not show strong similarity to the NAO-pattern”.
After studying the research paper, I found that November sea ice in areas that cover from Greenland and Scandinavian seas play a major role in signaling the sign of NAO in the previous winter. While anomalies in the Labrador Sea suggest a more NAO-pattern. Some have speculated that there is a link between ice anomalies and the stratosphere.
We cannot take a comparison from September to November as being any kind of sign for winter. However, November sea ice has data to back up its clam on determining the blocking and teleconnections across the northern hemisphere.
In case you want to read more here are my sources:
Koenigk, T., Caian, M., Nikulin, G. et al. Regional Arctic sea ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions. Clim Dyn 46, 317–337 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2586-1
Poles apart: A record-breaking summer and winter (Beitler, 2012).
National Snow and Ice Data Center.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks good for the southwest forum.
Womp
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Good thing is nothing lasts forever, even cold November rain.
iGRXY
Member
Well this is going to be a fresh dump of cold air into the region. GFS is likely too warm again. It's the warmest model of all for the same time period. It continues to be generally too warm at least around here compared to others. Best bet is upper 40's to low 50's for most for highs.
Gfs tried really hard to make it interesting for some of the wedge areas
I'll elaborate on the "womp". Not that far off to be honest and that high latitude blocking is keeping the storm track suppressed, unfortunately pacific not cooperating and nothing to drag that cold air more south and southeast. Plus extremely early for this anyway, let's hope we can get something close to this later next month.
? Sleet aleet