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Pattern November Nuances

metwannabe said:
Come on you can do it I know you can!
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png
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I dream of frontloaded Winters

Here in Alabama there was about 4 instances of Winter Weather during the December of 2010.
 
Looks like a little bit of coastal winter at hour 312. Move that low Northwest and it's Winter for a lot of folks. :weenie:
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GFS was one of the "wackiest, wildest, most incredible" runs in history. (Yes, i'm borrowing from John Sterling but I have no better way to describe it.) The blocking must be off the charts!
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The strong -NAO mid run is the initiator, and then we get this which seems off to me.
gfs_z500a_namer_31.png

gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

Using the other anomaly map makes it more obvious.
gfs_z500aNorm_namer_47.png

That is some massive cold air though.
gfs_T850_namer_47.png
 
Would be cool if we had a storm first week of December, almost same time as last year storm December 7/8.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The strong -NAO mid run is the initiator, and then we get this which seems off to me.
gfs_z500a_namer_31.png

gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

Using the other anomaly map makes it more obvious.
gfs_z500aNorm_namer_47.png

That is some massive cold air though.
gfs_T850_namer_47.png
Click to expand...

You’re gonna lose resolution the further out in the run you go


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Storm5 said:
You’re gonna lose resolution the further out in the run you go


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Yeah, you can't tell anything long range from individual model runs of any model IMO. However when you start seeing the ensembles hit, perhaps there's something to watch. This is the first GEFS run I've seen with a touch of snow in MBY. Is the first warning shot? Or just another clown map? Once it consistently gets up to 2 inches on the ens runs, then I start to pay attention. Until then, it's just a blip of crazy individual member runs.upload_2018-11-19_17-12-59.png n
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, you can't tell anything long range from individual model runs of any model IMO. However when you start seeing the ensembles hit, perhaps there's something to watch. This is the first GEFS run I've seen with a touch of snow in MBY. Is the first warning shot? Or just another clown map? Once it consistently gets up to 2 inches on the ens runs, then I start to pay attention. Until then, it's just a blip of crazy individual member runs.View attachment 7510 n
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We hug anything that blanks RDU and gives MBY snow :)
 
Haas anyone noticed that the average anomaly for US highs has been much colder than that for the lows, especially in recent weeks? Is that related to global warming and the very warm oceans? I know the SW Atlantic just off the SE US remains quite warm anomalywise though it is starting to cool some
 
GaWx said:
Haas anyone noticed that the average anomaly for US highs has been much colder than that for the lows, especially in recent weeks? Is that related to global warming and the very warm oceans? I know the SW Atlantic just off the SE US remains quite warm anomalywise though it is starting to cool some
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Maybe higher humidity values making it harder to cool off?
 
In any event, when (note: not "if") temp blues begin to look like these probability blues, will someone be so kind as to send an emergency PM to Gainesville ... :cool:


610temp.new.gif
 
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