Kylo
Member
This post should go in the November thread when thats created, but GEFS a few days ago was modeling solid eastern/SE torch as we get into November and now. Goes along with the snowy nino composites in above post.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern November Nuances
- Thread starter Kylo
- Start date
Hoping to bring the mojo to this thread for winter since my birthday is in November. Just remember the weather in November the winter will remember! So if we see Miller A type storms or blocking expect it to repeat!
lmao I was going to create a November thread with the exact same title !
I picked it first lol.
Bones
Member
As They Say In College Football November To Remember !!!!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm going to piggy back off of this post in the 2018-19 winter thread. Not surprisingly, we're starting to see some ECMWF forecasts w/ a -NAO as we encroach on mid-November. In light of the aforementioned post and the fact we have a belt of anomalous easterly momentum (in green) near 45-50N, this favors high-latitude blocking in general and only lends more legitimacy to the idea that we might finally get a decent -NAO sometime in/around the 2nd-3rd week of November, knocking on the door of our winter wx climo in the Carolinas.
We've seen snow in the 2nd week of November as recently as 2013 in central NC.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here are the 3 biggest winter storms in mid-November east of the mountains that I've come across in the historical record. I'd gladly take any of these...
I remember getting about 1/4 inch of snow the day before Thanksgiving back in 2013. Not sure if the airport measured any accumulation, but that's the earliest I've ever seen measurable snowfall. It didn't last long iirc, maybe a couple hours before it was gone.
Kylo
Member
I suppose it's not a coincidence to see that back in the 60's when -NAO was more prevalent it was preceded in October/November by a Scandinavian ridge and NP low?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes that is no coincidence, that pattern configuration late in the fall if it persists, increases wave driving on the polar vortex leading to disruption and weakening later on that’s manifest as blocking over Greenland where the primary pole of the AO is located
Jimmy, remember this?? It was truly a November nuisance!
That 2000 event was a nice over performer/surprise. If I remember correctly forecast was for mainly rain or snow to rain and it snowed most of the day with a good period of heavy marshmallows. Was almost all melted by the next morning as temps hung around 33-34
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
NCSNOW
Member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2016
- Messages
- 9,549
- Reaction score
- 19,001
Started on Sunday morning here 2.8 inches, jackpotted lol. Let up by mid afternoon,sun peeked out and was all gone by sunset. Beleive it was mid November, like 17th or 18th. Earliest event here by far. THE Previous January was the crusher along with that all time greatest 2 week stretch of winter wx in my lifetime. Had 4 winterstorms during that timeframe. Fact Jan 2000- Feb 28,2004 was a great time here. Had the catastrophic 2002 December Ice storm, and the ULL Feb 28,2004 (17 inches thundersnow). All that on the heels of those late 90s NC Hurricanes. Unfortunately no wx board till the Feb 2004 event.
Last edited:
I was in my work truck right smack dab in the middle of it! I thought I was a goner. I had no idea the size or intensity of it at the time. Very scary feeling
I am hearing talk of a possible severe weather event next week. Not sure of its impacts on the south.
Here is a snippet from this mornings update from B'ham.
NEXT WEEK: The latest run of the GFS model hints that a decent part of the day Monday will be dry, but then it shows a stormy setup for Tuesday, November 6, election day. We will mention a good chance of strong storms, and we could very well be looking at a severe weather threat. Of course, too early for details now, but just something to watch. The latter half of the week looks cool and dry.
Storm5
Member
Starting to see some nice cold shots on the long range guidance. Noise for now , but it just proves we are close to the best time of year
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
RollTide18
Member
I hope we can get this stormy pattern going into at least December
It's nice to know that we are just 8 hours away from entering a month where snowfall is at least POSSIBLE. Not likely, but crazier things have happened. Heck if we can get almost a foot of snow like we did in early December last year I certainly wouldn't rule out snow in the latter half of November.