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Pattern November Nuances

Hoping to bring the mojo to this thread for winter since my birthday is in November. Just remember the weather in November the winter will remember! So if we see Miller A type storms or blocking expect it to repeat!
 
Yeah for the fact that you want continued wave-1 forcing to disturb the polar vortex early on, it's usually good to keep the Aleutian Low strong, granted there are other ways to do this but at least we have a Scandinavian ridge for the foreseeable future ensuring that the PV doesn't become exceptionally strong even if the Aleutian Low falters for a while.
Something to look/hope for as we get deeper into November is to monitor the amplitude of the Scandinavian ridge. If the Scandinavian high were to amplify, it would eventually begin to retrograde westward and become a negative NAO late in November. Large, retrogressive Scandinavian ridges are actually the main pathway thru which we get long-lasting & strong negative NAOs, anticyclones "breaking" poleward from the south into Greenland & Iceland rarely work out in our favor in the long run.

I'm going to piggy back off of this post in the 2018-19 winter thread. Not surprisingly, we're starting to see some ECMWF forecasts w/ a -NAO as we encroach on mid-November. In light of the aforementioned post and the fact we have a belt of anomalous easterly momentum (in green) near 45-50N, this favors high-latitude blocking in general and only lends more legitimacy to the idea that we might finally get a decent -NAO sometime in/around the 2nd-3rd week of November, knocking on the door of our winter wx climo in the Carolinas.

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

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We've seen snow in the 2nd week of November as recently as 2013 in central NC.
November 12 2013 NC Snowmap.png
 
I remember getting about 1/4 inch of snow the day before Thanksgiving back in 2013. Not sure if the airport measured any accumulation, but that's the earliest I've ever seen measurable snowfall. It didn't last long iirc, maybe a couple hours before it was gone.
 
I'm going to piggy back off of this post in the 2018-19 winter thread. Not surprisingly, we're starting to see some ECMWF forecasts w/ a -NAO as we encroach on mid-November. In light of the aforementioned post and the fact we have a belt of anomalous easterly momentum (in green) near 45-50N, this favors high-latitude blocking in general and only lends more legitimacy to the idea that we might finally get a decent -NAO sometime in/around the 2nd-3rd week of November, knocking on the door of our winter wx climo in the Carolinas.


We've seen snow in the 2nd week of November as recently as 2013 in central NC.

I suppose it's not a coincidence to see that back in the 60's when -NAO was more prevalent it was preceded in October/November by a Scandinavian ridge and NP low?

OctNov60s.png

60sNAO.png
 
I suppose it's not a coincidence to see that back in the 60's when -NAO was more prevalent it was preceded in October/November by a Scandinavian ridge and NP low?

View attachment 7109

View attachment 7111
Yes that is no coincidence, that pattern configuration late in the fall if it persists, increases wave driving on the polar vortex leading to disruption and weakening later on that’s manifest as blocking over Greenland where the primary pole of the AO is located
 
Here are the 3 biggest winter storms in mid-November east of the mountains that I've come across in the historical record. I'd gladly take any of these...
View attachment 7106
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That 2000 event was a nice over performer/surprise. If I remember correctly forecast was for mainly rain or snow to rain and it snowed most of the day with a good period of heavy marshmallows. Was almost all melted by the next morning as temps hung around 33-34

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That 2000 event was a nice over performer/surprise. If I remember correctly forecast was for mainly rain or snow to rain and it snowed most of the day with a good period of heavy marshmallows. Was almost all melted by the next morning as temps hung around 33-34

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Started on Sunday morning here 2.8 inches, jackpotted lol. Let up by mid afternoon,sun peeked out and was all gone by sunset. Beleive it was mid November, like 17th or 18th. Earliest event here by far. THE Previous January was the crusher along with that all time greatest 2 week stretch of winter wx in my lifetime. Had 4 winterstorms during that timeframe. Fact Jan 2000- Feb 28,2004 was a great time here. Had the catastrophic 2002 December Ice storm, and the ULL Feb 28,2004 (17 inches thundersnow). All that on the heels of those late 90s NC Hurricanes. Unfortunately no wx board till the Feb 2004 event.
 
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I am hearing talk of a possible severe weather event next week. Not sure of its impacts on the south.
 
I am hearing talk of a possible severe weather event next week. Not sure of its impacts on the south.
Here is a snippet from this mornings update from B'ham.

NEXT WEEK: The latest run of the GFS model hints that a decent part of the day Monday will be dry, but then it shows a stormy setup for Tuesday, November 6, election day. We will mention a good chance of strong storms, and we could very well be looking at a severe weather threat. Of course, too early for details now, but just something to watch. The latter half of the week looks cool and dry.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png
second run of showing something in this time frame
 
Starting to see some nice cold shots on the long range guidance. Noise for now , but it just proves we are close to the best time of year


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I hope we can get this stormy pattern going into at least December
 
It's nice to know that we are just 8 hours away from entering a month where snowfall is at least POSSIBLE. Not likely, but crazier things have happened. Heck if we can get almost a foot of snow like we did in early December last year I certainly wouldn't rule out snow in the latter half of November.
 
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