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Pattern November Knock-Out

I'm ready for some weather in forecasting range... there's not even rain here til fantasy land

The 18z GFS didn't even have a freeze in Chicago the entire run, their average low next week is 26
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Thats just crazy that Dallas had 20" in one winter. You never EVER see Atlanta get that much snow, despite the fact that Atlanta gets on average about the same as Dallas.
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most of that fell in one storm on February 11, 2010, 12 inches of snow at the airport, totally unexpected lol

also there was up to 8 inches in the northern suburbs on the first day of spring after that! also unexpected
 
CHA has had 5 20+ seasonal snowfall totals since 1870. Most recent being 92-93 of course. The closest we've come since then is 10-11, with 12.6. A La Nina year too..
 
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10-11 is a pretty decent analog right now... and that year wasn't too bad here either. Had a week in February 2011 where snow/ice stayed on the ground(leading up to when Dallas hosted the Super Bowl), there were all kinds of problems even after temperatures had warmed up into the 50s by then

it was first a sleet storm on the heels of an arctic front and then several inches of snow a couple days later, the two days in between had temperatures barely in the 20s for highs

the winter otherwise was pretty torchy
 
The lack of precipitation in the continental US currently is pretty dramatic. Don't know how unusual that is. There's a patch of rain in NW Washington state and a few showers in Michigan. That's it.
 
whamby said:
The lack of precipitation in the continental US currently is pretty dramatic. Don't know how unusual that is. There's a patch of rain in NW Washington state and a few showers in Michigan. That's it.
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its really amazing how quiet the weather is literally everywhere

Calm before the storm? ;)
 
whamby said:
The lack of precipitation in the continental US currently is pretty dramatic. Don't know how unusual that is. There's a patch of rain in NW Washington state and a few showers in Michigan. That's it.
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Seems rather unusual for late November.
 
GFS continues to look great at 384!
:(
 
cd2play said:
Is the mid-December cold still on the table?
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Yes, this is from the GEFS, this is the look you need to have cold in the east. This look favors below normal temps. over the east. If this look holds, we should start to see a
+ PNA, - AO. There would probably be a
- NAO as well with the Greenland blocking.

I'd think the east will experience below normal temps. with higher chance at winter precip. including the SE. Especially the upper south by mid December.
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Storm5 said:
Belt bursting
82e2fd12b5035d71e3c588d1fff81948.jpg


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I get it! Let's see if it remotely looks like this on Dec 9th! Pants busting or pants deflating?? Time will tell
 
The GFS could be onto something. 6z had winter mischief mostly over the upper south and the 12z GFS also had winter mischief. Both runs had it over the 300 hour mark. The reason why I say the GFS could be onto something is because it showed winter mischief twice past 300 hours. What's the chance? Still a small chance of anything happening, but if we start to see consistency, the chances of something wintry happening goes up.

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The models can only "say" so much. Truly enjoying the interpretations and translations. Nothing of value to add, except ... Thanks!
Best,
Phil
 
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