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Pattern November Knock-Out

whatalife said:
We’ll be breaking out the suntan lotion by January 1st


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Barring something unusual, I'd definitely say by Jan 20th, realistically; things upstream could surprise us, but if one looks at history and at the current setup, those are not the odds, at least IMHO (though I just watched a video from DT the other day that suggests quite the contrary).
 
pcbjr said:
Realism is a virtue ... o_O
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Yeah it seems there is always a warm model in there somewhere. Just as long as there are several others showing cold and we are actually starting a trend we should be good.
 
GaStorm said:
Yeah it seems there is always a warm model in there somewhere. Just as long as there are several others showing cold and we are actually starting a trend we should be good.
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There are several if not most models showing cold for the next 10 - 14 days, no doubt, and realistically that should pan out; after that, it makes no sense to put much stock in any long range model. Rather, look at the dynamics and see what the setup has done in the past, and make an educated guess going way out. Historically, with this set up, cold is not a season long thing (of course there are exceptions and I'm hoping that this year is one; Lord knows, we need it, but ...)
 
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GaStorm said:
Yeah it seems there is always a warm model in there somewhere. Just as long as there are several others showing cold and we are actually starting a trend we should be good.
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Just as there is always a warm model, there will always be 2 or 3 people chomping at the bit to post them , along with the only model showing rain! :(
 
Holy wow at the frigid airmass coming down from W Canada on the 12Z GFS. Let's see how far SE the bulk of it gets in the US.
 
GaWx said:
Holy wow at the frigid airmass coming down from W Canada on the 12Z GFS. Let's see how far SE the bulk of it gets in the US.
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I was just looking at that. Ridge out West further to West and more sharper that 0z run when compared to same hour.
157138cf76f547dfba809fb6b107904f.jpg


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Yeah if that actually holds I'm driving somewhere to see the snow. Lol.
 
is something wrong with this gfs run? it has frigid temps here low temps ive never seen before in november
 
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