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Pattern November Knock-Out

SD said:
Sign me up buttercup
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After last year I am loathe to get my hopes up this soon in the game, but those model runs are absolutely

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GaWx said:
The GEFS is predicting a sub -3 AO in a few days. That has happened in about 20% of Novembers since 1950. Here are the other Novembers with a day or more of sub -3:

2010, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1985, 1984, 1972, 1968, 1965, 1962, 1959, 1955, 1952, 1950

After throwing out El Ninos and warm neutral, we're left with these 8: 2010, 2000, 1998, 1985, 1984, 1962, 1955, 1950
Of these 8 Decembers in the SE US, 5 were very cold (2010, 2000, 1985, 1962, 1950), one was cool (1955), and 2 were quite warm (1998, 1984).

Of these 8, the closest ENSOwise to 2017 appear to be these: 2000, 1984, and 1950
Of these 3 Decembers, two were very cold (2000 and 1950) and 1 was quite warm (1984).

Conclusion: For cold 3.4 ENSO, there appears to be a small correlation between a November with a day or more of -3 AO and a quite cold Dec. in the SE US. I think it is safe to hypothesize this small correlation because the only other very cold SE Dec. with cold ENSO was 1983 and even it had a -2.510 AO day in Nov. Here's hoping.
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Good research Larry. I am looking forward to the next few weeks. It's been a while since we have had such a good blocking signal.
 
LR GFS FWIW is still looking great going into Thanksgiving and after. Strong blocking continues to show up and it's real close to a phased system on the 28th...
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look chilly, slightly BN to me.. we'll see how that 'mega-block' works out after Thanksgiving. They call it voodoo country for a reason.
 
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Pretty darn close, if that low came little north. End of run COLD!!!
 
06z GFS trying to catch on what the Euro was showing I see with placing a low to the south. From that run this morning of the GFS, that looks like it may turn out to be an over running event. A low comes up along the front. As always, we'll see how it plays out.


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Good to see gulf lows and cold air around hopefully setting the trend for winter. Snow in December seems like a much more likely scenario than November for sure.
 
La Nina's can be very front loaded in some years and just plain ugly in some. I would love to see the SST charts for those years and look at the Pacific placement of the coldest water (relative to the averages) as a good metric to look and see what if any difference it makes with this type of weak La Nina
 
RollTide18 said:
Would love another December like 2010.
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Me too. It's been years since we have had a cold December. I remember one year it was so cold it snowed about a couple weeks before Christmas and was still on the ground in some places Christmas morning. We are way overdue.
 
GaStorm said:
I bet a good portion of the SE will see snow by next month if the trends keep up. Cold rain is part of a colder pattern so there will probably be some days like that as well.
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Also, good chance as the cold blast comes through shortly after thanksgiving, we could see a storm somewhere end of month or beginning of December.
 
Not saying anything new, but the short term trend continues ...

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Just hoping that it doesn't all erode once winter actually gets here ...
 
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