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Severe November 5th-6th Severe Weather Threat

What's the tornado threat looking like for North Alabama ?
 
The only thing that gives me a slight pause for GA and the Carolinas to see a bigger threat is that the whole system is really pulling away from us

Was about to say the same thing. Looks like the low is screaming over the lakes, keeping GA in a relatively favorable position
 
sounding for shelby county alabama at the bibb/chilton/shelby lines

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Little change to the SPC outlook for Monday night for you guys in northwest AL/north MS/west TN, although parts of the enhanced risk area may be upgraded to moderate.

I still dont buy the slight risk for southeast TN and northwest GA. 12z ETA plus a weakening/increasingly linear line unlikely to do more than a gust of 40-45mph here, but we shall see.
 
No one is talking about this. Has the threat diminished?
 
Looks like a good line of cells over N MS and W TENN
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STP for 06Z tuesday
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PDS sounding for NW Jefferson CNTY Alabama associated with above STP model
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Looks like a good line of cells over N MS and W TENN
View attachment 7169

STP for 06Z tuesday
View attachment 7170

PDS sounding for NW Jefferson CNTY Alabama associated with above STP model
View attachment 7171

The issues I see is the very meager laspe rates. Along with the strong wind fields and EML it will be hard to get updrafts going in front of the line to take advantage of the wind shear. As the front approaches upper level wind become parallel with the front and unidirectional through the column that will effectivly greatly reduce the tornado threat.
 
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