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Severe November 5th-6th Severe Weather Threat

Storm5

Storm5

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Birmingham Alabama
Still a long ways out but this one looks like it could be a big one


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Well here comes the fall severe season. BMX and SPC highlighting a *potietial significant event Monday night into Tuesday... BMX already at 3 on their confidence level...
 
Some fairly strong wording coming out of some of the forecast offices across the region regarding this potential


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Morning AFD from NWS Birmingham:

The shortwave on Sunday night will serve as a primer wave for the next system developing to our west on Monday. A wide area of rich moisture will be lurking near the Gulf Coast, poised to move inland Monday afternoon and evening as wind fields respond to a shortwave entering the Southern Plains. Models are coming into agreement on a potentially dangerous setup Monday night into Tuesday morning across a large area which includes Alabama. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with the evolution of the synoptic pattern, showing a low-amplitude shortwave taking on a negative tilt Monday night to our northwest. This pattern has the look of a classic severe weather outbreak and would support a rapidly deepening surface low tracking toward the Great Lakes with significant pressure falls extending southward into Alabama. With dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to perhaps 70F, instability appears more than sufficient for deep convection within a very highly sheared environment. Taken at face value, the ECMWF shows semi-discrete supercells capable of producing long-track, significant tornadoes across the northern half of our forecast area on Tuesday morning. The HWO will be updated to include a moderate confidence threat for tornadoes and damaging winds across the entire forecast area. With this threat still around 96 hours out and models subject to change, we will refrain from going all in on the potential for a tornado outbreak.
 
SPC:

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020907
SPC AC 020907

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0407 AM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Potential exists for a significant severe event to transpire day 4
(Monday) into day 5 (Tuesday) mainly from the lower MS Valley into
the Southeast States. Model solutions have converged and
demonstrated run to run consistency, depicting significant
cyclogenesis to commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley
in response to an approaching intense upper jet within base of an
amplifying shortwave trough. The low is forecast to deepen as it
lifts northeast into IL overnight with trailing cold front advancing
through the TN and lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level
moisture residing over the northern Gulf will advect rapidly
northward through the warm sector in response to the strengthening
low-level jet, contributing to destabilization with moderate
instability possible from east TX into a portion of the Gulf Coast
states. Severe storms are likely to develop along advancing cold
front Monday afternoon initially from southeast OK into east TX,
then spreading into the lower MS Valley and TN Valley regions Monday
night. Impressive wind profiles with large hodographs and an intense
upper jet will promote a threat for damaging wind, tornadoes and
large hail. Severe threat will continue east through portions of the
Southeast states and Middle Atlantic Tuesday.

..Dial.. 11/02/2018
 
James Spann
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK: A deep, negative tilt upper trough will develop across the Central U.S. with very strong winds aloft, and a rapidly deepening surface low will move quickly from the Texas Panhandle to near Chicago. This will bring a rather potent severe weather setup to the southern U.S. Monday into Tuesday.

Based on the projected shear and instability values, it sure looks like thunderstorms across Alabama with this system will have the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. For now, the severe weather seems most likely late Monday night into Tuesday… generally in the range from midnight Monday night to noon Tuesday. SPC already has a risk of severe storms defined for most of Alabama during this time frame.

It is still early to be more specific, but with good model consistency, the pattern, and the time of the year, I would recommend everyone review your severe weather plan this weekend.

*Be sure you have multiple, reliable ways of receiving severe weather warnings. Have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home (if you already have one, change the batteries this weekend when you “fall back” and set the clocks tomorrow night). And, have a good app on your phone designed for warnings. NEVER rely on a siren.

*Know where you are going. In a site built home, that is a small room, on the lowest floor, away from windows, and near the center of the house. If you live in a mobile home, know the locations of nearby shelters and have a quick way of getting there.

*In your safe place, have a readiness kit that includes helmets for everyone (bicycle or batting helmets are great), portable airhorns, and hard soled shoes.

*Like April 27, 2011? That is not a good question; days like that are generational, and tend to happen every 40 years or so. All you need to know is that it takes just one tornado in the entire state, and if that tornado comes down your street, then it is YOUR April 27. We have to be ready for every severe weather threat.

Since the event is 96 hours out… we can’t be any more specific at this point, but we will keep you updated and coming days as we get closer.
 
Strong CAD in the Carolinas Monday into Tuesday, should keep the air in the W Carolinas stable and limit severe! Now MS / AL / GA, looks serious!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Strong CAD in the Carolinas Monday into Tuesday, should keep the air in the W Carolinas stable and limit severe! Now MS / AL / GA, looks serious!
Click to expand...
If the CAD is strong enough we won't get severe here either. AL and further west is a different story though.
 
Yes, if there's CAD, there's not going to be severe from NE/E Georgia and up. I've seen plenty of systems that look dangerous end up being a lamb in a good portion of Georgia because CAD snuffed it out.

That's not to say that this won't be a dangerous system in Alabama and points west or Tennessee though.
 
GSP pretty adamant about a strong CAD event on Mon into Tuesday
 
I’ve seen the wedge save us from severe WX more times than not here in upstate SC. Strong cells have zero chance against a decent wedge
 
i know its the NAM but here is the 00z STP valid at 09z tue 2018-11-06

stp.conus.png
 
Capture.PNG SPC AC 030733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms with potential for damaging wind and
tornadoes are expected Monday evening into the overnight from a
portion of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys.

Primary change to previous outlook for Monday has been to expand the
severe risk areas farther north and east based on latest trends in
model guidance.

Potential still exists for significant severe weather to transpire
Monday evening and overnight, mainly from the lower MS Valley into
the Tennessee Valley regions. Though the NAM and GFS are slightly
less amplified with approaching upper trough compared to the ECMWF,
models have demonstrated reasonably good consistency. Cyclogenesis
should commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley in
response to ascent within exit region of an approaching, intense jet
streak within base of an amplifying shortwave trough. The low is
forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into the OH Valley
overnight with trailing cold front advancing through the TN and
lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level moisture residing over the
northern Gulf will advect rapidly northward through the warm sector
in response to the strengthening low-level jet, contributing to
destabilization with modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).
Mixed storm modes including a squall line and supercells are likely
to develop along and ahead of advancing cold front Monday afternoon
initially over the lower MS Valley, and continuing east into the TN
Valley and Southeast States Monday night. Impressive wind profiles
with large hodographs and an intense upper jet will promote a threat
for mainly damaging wind and tornadoes, though some hail will also
be possible.

..Dial.. 11/03/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0751Z (2:51AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
 
From the BMX NWS office as of 0420hrs 03 Nov 2018

THE CHANNEL JET IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
OPEN WAVE TROUGH AS IT EJECTS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT THERE IS CRITICAL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE AMOUNT OF
AMPLIFICATION INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS VERSUS THE ECMWF. THE
LESSER AMPLIFIED NAM/GFS WOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE
FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA, WHILE THE MORE
CONSISTENT AND MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A DANGEROUS
SETUP ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY RESULT IN SBCAPE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VALUES THIS HIGH WILL NOT BE EXPLICITLY SHOWN BY
MODEL OUTPUT DUE TO THE TYPICAL ERROR OF DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY IS QUITE RARE IN THE COOL SEASON, AND WILL BE
COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. WITH A WIDE
WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AND 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING TO OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING, ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE
AFTER 7 PM MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A PEAK THREAT
OCCURRING IN THE MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR A QLCS COULD PRODUCE LONG-TRACK,
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. CURRENTLY THE BEST OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY,
SHEAR, AND LIFT, APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-59.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN THREAT AREA COULD SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM
OUR FORECAST AREA IF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRENDS LESS AMPLIFIED
AS INDICATED BY SOME MODELS.

87/GRANTHAM
 
I dont buy the SLT for southeast TN / northwest GA. The Cumberland Plateau is littered with the carcasses of overnight severe outbreaks that arrive after 6z. Unless timing speeds up a good 6 hours i dont see it happening here.
 
The only thing that gives me a slight pause for GA and the Carolinas to see a bigger threat is that the whole system is really pulling away from us
 
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