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November 2025

Iceagewhereartthou said:
Cautious and conservative is always going to be closer to the real outcome in the upstate. John understood that. I like CJ but I can't help but wonder if growing up in Hendersonville gave him an unrealistic expectation for what happens here. Hendersonville can often overperform but coming down 1000 feet here makes a total difference. Kendra gets a lot of flack on here but she is the most conservative of all the upstate mets... and usually more realistic.
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I agree. If you watched John back in the 90s and early 2000s he had a lot of excitement and enthusiasm for winter weather but he got more conservative over the years and yes I agree about the upstate always be better to be cautious and conservative because we know how it's usually going to shake out. He used to be like CJ back in his younger years but he changed and it's ok I just always liked to watch him downplay it WHEN it did snow in the upstate in his last 15 years or so. Especially the Christmas day snow in 2010. He wasn't around most of the week, might of been on vacation possibly if I can remember correctly. CJ was there most of the week with the other mets forecasting and you don't see Cessarich all week long and then boom!!! Models really flipped the day before from 4-6 inches to maybe a inch in the upstate and the foothills of nc if we're lucky and then they flipped back Christmas Eve night to a solid 4-6 inches and then the ground is covered Christmas morning and it's pouring snow out and boom there is Cessarich coming in with a live update. Look outside folks. I told you. It's snowing out. I get a kick out of that one every time. I still like Cessarich and CJ but that one will always stick with me. I know where your coming from. I agree buddy. 👍
 
^ I do understand the credibility of the field argument (talking about legit and professional meteorologists) and the fact that CJ is a pro met with a large following. But social media is just the world we live in now. For better or worse, we're all riding that tide now (whether we want to or not and whether we choose to participate or not) and have to figure out how to sink or swim, rather than fight so hard against it. The professional field is, unfortunately, going to have to figure out how to turn lemons into lemonade and turn some of this stuff into an advantage, rather than rail against it constantly.

I think we're going look back on this period one day and realize how bad social media impacted our culture. But for now, we have to evolve with it, unfortunately.
 
Brent said:
Definitely not verifying 🤣🤣🤣

I swear the stuff I read on social media everyday is crazy like do people really believe what they post
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Does people believe it? Umm yes unfortunately they do Just look at all the gullible people commenting on their post. They so excited about it they can't stand it
 
Fropa timing has made strides forward in the past several model cycles. 12z yesterday:
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12z today:
1763661406512.png

at this rate, thanksgiving will be chilly and breezy for many of us. the 12z Euro OP gets it through before we even roll over to midnight eastern the night of the 26th
 
Brent said:
Definitely not verifying 🤣🤣🤣

I swear the stuff I read on social media everyday is crazy like do people really believe what they post
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I think a lot of people don’t believe most of what they post. They simply post stuff they think will get them the most views and likes. You see it the most with politics and sports. When people get mad at a post and respond angrily they don’t realize they are doing exactly what that poster wants by engaging and giving them views.
 
Brent said:
5 days before Thanksgiving and this is the first forecast with no highs above the 60s showing up which averages are almost in the 50s now!

What a fall it's been 🤣 I'm actually quite amazed our first freeze was right on track because yikes otherwise
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Man hopefully you get ya a good ole Blue Norther in the coming days Brent!
 
Mitch West said:
Man hopefully you get ya a good ole Blue Norther in the coming days Brent!
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Oh it's coming eventually that's one thing about out here 😂 we may skip traditional fall that people have been wanting is what I'm thinking at this point

I dunno if it'll be first of December like some models and people claim but it's definitely coming
 
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR HARNETT, JOHNSTON, AND WAKE
WWUS82 KRAH 222007
SPSRAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
307 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

NCZ040>042-076-077-222045-
Lee NC-Johnston NC-Chatham NC-Harnett NC-Wake NC-
307 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HARNETT...
NORTHEASTERN LEE...SOUTHWESTERN WAKE...CENTRAL JOHNSTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EST...

At 306 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fuquay-Varina, or 12 miles south of Cary, moving east at 40 mph.
This was part of a line of showers and storms extending from Moncure
eastward to just south of Clayton.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Smithfield, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, Clayton, Angier, Holly Springs,
Selma, Four Oaks, Coats Crossroads, and Flowers.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 95 between Mile Markers 98 and 87.
Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 308 and 323.
US 1 between Mile Markers 80 and 90.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 7909 3568 7908 3567 7828 3555 7824
3543 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 275DEG 35KT 3559 7872

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

$$

GIH
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Conflicted. I want jackets, gloves and dendrites. However, riding single track on my MTB, with a colored canopy, sweating for 3 hours is kinda nice. The internal struggle is real.
 
Getting old … I couldn’t live in San Diego ;)
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Holy cow! Today’s high of 82 F at KATL obliterated the daily record by 5F. That’s also the warmest so late in the season by 6 days! They missed the warmest for all of Nov by only 2 F.

Here it wasn’t a record, but it was the 4th day in a row with low 80s. Being back autumn! It will be arriving just in time to give us a cool Thanksgiving!
 
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