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November 2025

Iceagewhereartthou said:
This was from 2 days ago. Looks like a little snow fell in the Rockies since but so far this is the November that Fall forgot; pretty amazing.
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It would be nice if that snowfall map filled in at the areas that usually receive snow this time of year. I'm somewhat pessimistic about the possible cold air outbreaks that have been discussed in December having any staying power without a snowpack to enhance them.
 
SD said:
its funny to me how the models continue to really be too ridged east too troughed west in the mid range. I think we might actually be able to get a front through Wednesday night into early Thanksgiving so it's at least not 80 for most of us
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Yep this has been the theme most of this fall.

Just about every big western trough that’s tried to cut thru the four corners in the extended range has gone poof once it got inside day 7-10. Starting to see models adjust again to that near the end of November
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s trying. Been a while since we dusted this one off View attachment 176820
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Worst storm I ever experienced in Dallas 🤣 it was awful

That was during the multiple years of nothing before 2021 too. Only 2 good winters out of 7! Yeah for all the talk about February 2021 and how great it was(well except the near blackout...) that was the first real storm in Dallas since March 2015!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Western trough evaporation View attachment 176828View attachment 176829
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lol i was drafting a post about this but then got sidetracked looking for ens performance examples from recent weeks. we see the EPS already headed to a western ridge (briefly, before it nukes it and brings the SER back to start Dec) in the late next week window, so let's say that trend continues (as it has tended to do this fall). if anything, there's some argument for it to keep looking even better as we get closer. from our big trough early last week, 264 hours out:

1763505148242.png

to five days later, 102 hours out:


1763505160328.png

huge jump in wrn ridging. obviously not breaking any news here that ens are not super accurate beyond D10, and there is no guarantee that this will trend the same way since it is an entirely different situation, but we can perhaps draw some inspiration on where ens may be headed over the rest of this week. to be honest, even without ridging out there, it's still a nice look over our heads at the moment:

1763505311521.png

maybe we can ramp up those yellows and oranges out west like we did earlier this month.
 
Brent said:
Worst storm I ever experienced in Dallas 🤣 it was awful

That was during the multiple years of nothing before 2021 too. Only 2 good winters out of 7! Yeah for all the talk about February 2021 and how great it was(well except the near blackout...) that was the first real storm in Dallas since March 2015!
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The worst here also. Watching the northern Atlanta burbs get smoked while the cold air was trapped west on the wrong side of the mountains was disgusting. Hell
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The worst here also. Watching the northern Atlanta burbs get smoked while the cold air was trapped west on the wrong side of the mountains was disgusting. Hell
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Haha I remember at one point I was gonna drive towards Houston and chase snow

I never imagined going south to chase snow 🤣🤣 it really messed with me at some point

The only good thing about that storm was a lot of my friends and family in Alabama Georgia jackpotted

They were too far north in January too when Florida got snow. That storm was hell to watch on radar too for them be so close and it was falling apart
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s trying. Been a while since we dusted this one off View attachment 176820
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It was a winter wonderland on 75 in the NW ATL burbs the day after this, and it slowly tapered off as I was heading to the far NW corner of the state.

Maybe we'll do this again lel, because I think that was the last time I went to my mom's side of the family's Christmas dinner and I'm going this year after I haven't in recent years.
 
Twister said:
Well you know CJ threw out that 12-14" GFS Snow map yesterday? 😂
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Chris Justus used to be a solid meteorologist that would not bite on cold air or snow until it was set in stone. Last year he called for 4-8+ in that January system, and absolutely no models were calling for that much. Ended up being 3/4”. He is posting random GFS models that are 10-12 days out and just seemingly trying to get likes on Facebook. I think he is a good guy, but it makes no sense what happened to him. He is the reason we have random people saying it’s gonna snow in 13 days. It’s just a matter of time for him to either become like ole Brad or lose his job.
 
UNCSC said:
Chris Justus used to be a solid meteorologist that would not bite on cold air or snow until it was set in stone. Last year he called for 4-8+ in that January system, and absolutely no models were calling for that much. Ended up being 3/4”. He is posting random GFS models that are 10-12 days out and just seemingly trying to get likes on Facebook. I think he is a good guy, but it makes no sense what happened to him. He is the reason we have random people saying it’s gonna snow in 13 days. It’s just a matter of time for him to either become like ole Brad or lose his job.
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No offense but you sound like a John Cessarich kinda guy. Conservative until the bitter end?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
GEFS weirdly biting on for something around the end of the month. I’m assuming it digs some trailing energy behind the main trough. Lot of doubts about that though, but a interesting run View attachment 176913View attachment 176914View attachment 176915
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Looks lot we might stack the front up against the SER and either overrun a couple waves or just drop a big one. If you want to do snow this time of year this kind of setup isn't that far off. Probably would want to see more deep cold in the NE and into SE Can but its Thanksgiving weekend anything cold is a win imo
 
I'll be honest, I really don't get all of the indigestion people get when somebody on social media posts a 384 hour snowfall map from an operational model.

If somebody reading social media is dumb enough to believe a 384 hour snowfall map that another person on social media posts, well that's on them.

If CJ wants to post the snowfall map, why does anybody care? The people who are smart enough to know it's garbage will roll their eyes and scroll past. And the others, well they'll learn. It's how life works.

Get your official weather info from an office source, not from an X feed. If you don't know how to do that, why do I care? Seriously.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'll be honest, I really don't get all of the indigestion people get when somebody on social media posts a 384 hour snowfall map from an operational model.

If somebody reading social media is dumb enough to believe a 384 hour snowfall map that another person on social media posts, well that's on them.

If CJ wants to post the snowfall map, why does anybody care? The people who are smart enough to know it's garbage will roll their eyes and scroll past. And the others, well they'll learn. It's how life works.

Get your official weather info from an office source, not from an X feed. If you don't know how to do that, why do I care? Seriously.
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Southernwx.com/forecast
 
J1C1111 said:
No offense but you sound like a John Cessarich kinda guy. Conservative until the bitter end?
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Cautious and conservative is always going to be closer to the real outcome in the upstate. John understood that. I like CJ but I can't help but wonder if growing up in Hendersonville gave him an unrealistic expectation for what happens here. Hendersonville can often overperform but coming down 1000 feet here makes a total difference. Kendra gets a lot of flack on here but she is the most conservative of all the upstate mets... and usually more realistic.
 
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