snowc
Member
TORNADO OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #636 IS GOING TO BE ISSUED. PREPARE FOR ORANGE LIGHT TO POP UP ON NWR!
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November 2025
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
snowc
Member
snowc
Member
NOTE! If you are having trouble viewing the above image for watch, wait for the alert tone to sound on the NWR or wait till they issue it.
snowc
Member
Aaand the radio is going off.. 
NEGaweather
Member
One hell of a thunderstorm here
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I would be curious how similar this set is to 11/12/2013 as well
Nice structure on the sups rolling through the upstate
SimeonNC
Member
18z GFS finally fully caved to the Euro.
Hires Models showed it a day or 2 prior and night before showed some heavy returns. I chased from Charleston and didn’t really believe it would happen until I woke up that morning and the radar lit up
lol it’s gonna be like mid-upper 40s there in a day and a half
This reminds me of the old days where the models would trend more troughed and cooler
Getting a good thump over performer in south charlotte
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
C-Money
Member
And central NC. Interesting.
What i’d give for a night up at sugar top. It’s going to be cranking up above Banner Elk. Jealous 
Buckethead over at AMWX will prob go 6-10” near wolf laurel. Idk exactly where his location is but he racks up in these events.
Brent
Member
Initial front passed here before it got dark. Got very windy for a bit and now it's dead calm and not really cold yet
Second push towards morning tries to squeeze out some flakes. I doubt it happens here in the city but maybe in the higher elevations
I know it's gonna warm back up but you gotta admit this is a pretty legit front for November 9th regardless with what is modeled in the Appalachians
Second push towards morning tries to squeeze out some flakes. I doubt it happens here in the city but maybe in the higher elevations
I know it's gonna warm back up but you gotta admit this is a pretty legit front for November 9th regardless with what is modeled in the Appalachians
SimeonNC
Member
The NAM seems to give the Carolinas two periods of containment breaking.
An initial band of scattered flurries/showers in the late afternoon/early evening before another round of flurries/snow showers later that night.
An initial band of scattered flurries/showers in the late afternoon/early evening before another round of flurries/snow showers later that night.
C-Money
Member
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1009 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
NCZ040-041-090400-
Chatham NC-Wake NC-
1009 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WAKE AND NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM
COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EST...
At 1008 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pittsboro to near Cary. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Pittsboro, Wake Forest, Garner, Zebulon, RDU
International, Apex, Holly Springs, and Morrisville.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 283 and 304.
Interstate 440 between Mile Markers 1 and 16.
Interstate 540 between Mile Markers 1 and 24.
US 1 between Mile Markers 80 and 101.
NC Highway 264 between Mile Markers 20 and 22.
the Durham Freeway near Mile Marker 2.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1009 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
NCZ040-041-090400-
Chatham NC-Wake NC-
1009 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WAKE AND NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM
COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EST...
At 1008 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pittsboro to near Cary. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Pittsboro, Wake Forest, Garner, Zebulon, RDU
International, Apex, Holly Springs, and Morrisville.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 283 and 304.
Interstate 440 between Mile Markers 1 and 16.
Interstate 540 between Mile Markers 1 and 24.
US 1 between Mile Markers 80 and 101.
NC Highway 264 between Mile Markers 20 and 22.
the Durham Freeway near Mile Marker 2.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle
Puking snow up at Notre Dame..heavy rate driven snow it appears bc radar looks like rain
He was murdered
Is this for real? When did this happen? That is just so terrible. How did you guys figure out?
Brent
Member
It was in April and someone knew his real name
Misc - Sad News
I have some sad news to report. One of our members was apparently murdered. We don't have any details beyond this news article. His name was Tyrese Lawson, 25, and posted here under the name of Meteorologist1999...
southernwx.com
Man, that is so heartbreaking. May he rest in peace.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I’m not sure if they have found his killer yet.
SimeonNC
Member
We're kinda outside the peak range of the Euro but it still gives CLT/Upstate SC flurries for a few panels in the afternoon before switching to giving Northern NC/The Triad the main action that night.
SimeonNC
Member
the 6z long range HRRR brings the vortmax way to the west and then sends it barreling east. It gives the ATL metro snow showers/snow squalls.
Though the 6z NAM continues what seems to be a trend of bringing the vortmax back up to the NE, which may be the death knell for anything breaking containment if it continues.
Though the 6z NAM continues what seems to be a trend of bringing the vortmax back up to the NE, which may be the death knell for anything breaking containment if it continues.
As of August there’s a $5,000 reward for information leading to an arrest of the perpetrator. No names or leads as of first week of August.
tennessee storm
Member
Was he from South Carolina ? Think
RAH finally saying there could be brief snow:
"Come Monday night, a strong vort max tied to the larger trough over
the Mid-Atlantic region will swing through central and eastern
portions of NC, in conjunction with the Arctic boundary. Model
forecasts depict a strong PV anomaly with the shortwave. Point
soundings from the GFS also depict steep lapse rates and deep
saturation in the dendritic growth layer. We certainly could see a
quick burst of rain changing to some brief light snow or flurries
Mon night with the dynamic nature to the system. It appears the
favored area would be mainly along/north of US-64. Any snow
accumulation, if any, would be minor and confined to elevated
surfaces given warm ground temperatures."
They even put it in my grid forecast:
But, this 20% chance starts right at my location and then goes east/northeast through NC. Honestly, I worry about the clous cover keeping the temps up overnight. I want that hard freeze over a few snowflakes.
"Come Monday night, a strong vort max tied to the larger trough over
the Mid-Atlantic region will swing through central and eastern
portions of NC, in conjunction with the Arctic boundary. Model
forecasts depict a strong PV anomaly with the shortwave. Point
soundings from the GFS also depict steep lapse rates and deep
saturation in the dendritic growth layer. We certainly could see a
quick burst of rain changing to some brief light snow or flurries
Mon night with the dynamic nature to the system. It appears the
favored area would be mainly along/north of US-64. Any snow
accumulation, if any, would be minor and confined to elevated
surfaces given warm ground temperatures."
They even put it in my grid forecast:
But, this 20% chance starts right at my location and then goes east/northeast through NC. Honestly, I worry about the clous cover keeping the temps up overnight. I want that hard freeze over a few snowflakes.
Brent
Member
The wind is definitely legit
I think we're way too warm for flakes though like I suspected
But yeah outside the cities may make a run for teens tonight. That's pretty crazy for this early in November
I think we're way too warm for flakes though like I suspected
But yeah outside the cities may make a run for teens tonight. That's pretty crazy for this early in November
Last edited:
NEGaweather
Member
campamy
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
12Z HRRR seems to be doing about the same, just drier as usual with the HRRR runs where it fluctuates on amounts. Regardless, still some decent squalls
SimeonNC
Member
The 12z NAM brings the vortmax back SW.
Also, the 3knam keeps wanting to develop flurries/sprinkles in SC in the late afternoon/early evening. Can a met or at least someone more educated than me explain this.
Also, the 3knam keeps wanting to develop flurries/sprinkles in SC in the late afternoon/early evening. Can a met or at least someone more educated than me explain this.
The current and recent KCHS NWS forecasts for KSAV have been for 30 on 11/11 in a windy freeze. If that were to verify, it would be the earliest 30 or colder since way back in 1976! However, latest and recent model consensus is suggesting that 30 is on the low end (Icon). ICON actually warmed some from 27s on Sat runs.
Latest ICON/GFS/CMC/Euro/UKMET (as of 6Z/0Z 11/9 runs) have 30/32/33/33/34. If this were a radiational cooling night, I’d likely favor the low end per slight warm bias of consensus. But with it being windy, I’m currently thinking near the model avg of 32. However, if the model consensus were to cool, I’d adjust colder.
Latest ICON/GFS/CMC/Euro/UKMET (as of 6Z/0Z 11/9 runs) have 30/32/33/33/34. If this were a radiational cooling night, I’d likely favor the low end per slight warm bias of consensus. But with it being windy, I’m currently thinking near the model avg of 32. However, if the model consensus were to cool, I’d adjust colder.
Yes. Near Santee.
About time for a trip to Dixie Stampede!