If it were a month later, I really would be excited about the prospect of snow showers breaking containment with that amount of energy. It’s just kinda hard to buy into in early November. I do recall however, a similar set up in November 2013 allowed widespread precip to come east of the mountains and it really kinda flared up east of I-77. I ended up with a solid coating on the grass from that and I think areas further east of me got more.
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November 2025
- Thread starter packfan98
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- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
Remember that day vividly. It was 68 at 2PM as I was leaving the government center uptown and snowing by seven.
Can’t wait for the GRAF to make its appearance Sunday
Since I posted this (6Z), the GFS has gotten a few degrees colder most areas the last 2 runs and is now at the following for 11/7 7AM:
SAV 30 vs 34
PDK 32 (which is still too warm) vs 34
GSP 27 vs 27 (likely ~2F too warm)
CAE 29 vs 32
CLT 29 vs 29
RDU 30 vs 32
GFS AVG 29.5 (0Z) vs 31.3 (6Z)
Brent
Member
From New Orleans 
Places in Texas may go from 90 to 30
Places in Texas may go from 90 to 30
I’m tired of moyock 
Euro continues to be the most aggressive model with the digging wave and has a slightly dynamic look here in the snow output with pulses of snow shower accumulation. Have a hard time believing all the other models are going to cave to it, but we’ll see
Euro 700mb moisture shows the spinning wave dropping down from Chicago with lee side development in the upstate / central NC, then across E NC / SE VA
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Wow, feels like Spring outside this morning; already in the 60s. I am so ready for this 2 day front to come through; just wish it would hang around! Leaves are gorgeous here!
JHS
Member
SPC Day 1 Outlook
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
Severe chances slowly increasing across parts of the Carolinas today.
SimeonNC
Member
I think the NAM might be caving to the Euro
12z
6z
12z
6z
SimeonNC
Member
Yep, big time move to a Euro-ish solution.
Someone is going to put up a big rain total tonight between KFAY and CAE
SimeonNC
Member
C-Money
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.68" today. Looking at a temp forecast challenge for Monday/Tuesday. I need to go get my peppers this weekend. I've really let the garden go, so it's over-run with wild strawberries. I'm calling Monday morning at 33 here, and Tuesday morning 25.5. Monday night/Tuesday morning will be a hard freeze.
AJ1013
Member
EPS mean for Tuesday in Miami is now 64/47. That would be the earliest <50F low since 1956 and the earliest <65F high since 1913. Wow!
Latest NAM Latest NAM is printing out some escape snow showers and some pretty good rain totals East of I-77
Ray dusting off the moderate snowman’ometer in early November is pretty rare. This will certainly be worth a drive above 4-5k feet 
Glenn Burns the heat mongerer is all in 
Bro purposely out here scaring the kids
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
The heat wave coming up is going to have some staying power. Maybe 7 straight days of temps around 75 or higher.
accu35
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I can see the warm up within those dates but nothing that we can’t handle after this quick cold spell. Then after, fun and games begin come December.
Did I miss something? Is he ok?@Meteorologist1999 would 100% be tracking this one
GRAF has something for the NC weenies.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
He was murdered in April.
eps snowgrams are promising for some piedmont flurry-watchers at the moment
i also can't help myself but weenie about the little shallow streamer over upstate SC that had been on the euro for several runs (until the most recent one), best i can tell is it was forming downwind of some 850mb speed convergence/700mb divergence that appeared to be terrain-influenced somehow. pretty cool that modeling even tries to pick up things like that
i also can't help myself but weenie about the little shallow streamer over upstate SC that had been on the euro for several runs (until the most recent one), best i can tell is it was forming downwind of some 850mb speed convergence/700mb divergence that appeared to be terrain-influenced somehow. pretty cool that modeling even tries to pick up things like that
all hail the GRAF
SimeonNC
Member
The 3K NAM gives Myrtle Beach some snow lol.
Man the Euro caving to the AI? Way to early to know, but the AI has not been wanting to stay warm. And that block the Euro gets to. Yowza! EPS has a strong signal for blocking too. Loving seeing that.
NAM not showing much reaching the ground, but if soundings like this are true (CLT metro area during the ongoing returns) this easily supports a moderate burst of snow. saturation, lift in the snow growth zone, weak instability with steep mid level lapse rates.
rburrel2
Member
Just going off memory, but this looks like a potentially similar setup that produced 3-5 inches of November snow for a small area around Columbia, SC several years back.
rburrel2
Member
I went and looked. 11/1/2014 was, of course, more potent looking. Still very similar though. We get a closed 5h low to pop and hold through the region on Monday and there could be some lucky people outside of the mountains.
Bigedd09
Member
Did that particular event surprise people? Like was it showing up on modeling?
RAH discussion finally mentions some flurries. First sign?
"A minority of ensemble members particularly from the ECS
depict potential for a very light rain/snow mix or some flurries
across our NE counties with the shortwave on Monday night. However,
it will be fighting dry air and strong downsloping westerly flow. So
confidence is low at this time."
"A minority of ensemble members particularly from the ECS
depict potential for a very light rain/snow mix or some flurries
across our NE counties with the shortwave on Monday night. However,
it will be fighting dry air and strong downsloping westerly flow. So
confidence is low at this time."
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The base state just isn’t favorable for western troughing in late fall/early winter this year.
We might be getting one late next week, but we’re going to be doing a lot of kicking and screaming in the process.
rburrel2
Member
IIRC, it was a major surprise that it came down heavy enough to stick.