Bigedd09
Member
Does it have any precip making it over the mountains?
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November 2025
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
33 this morning, coldest yet but still haven't touched freezing. Better frost though and Monday night I'll probably finally have to turn the heat on
SimeonNC
Member
On the OP 6z euro it does have spotty precip making it over the mtns.
THIS is (Believable), RE: Bald Head Island & immediately off the Coast (second attachment & #3).. Sorta a Lake/Ocean Effect Snow(s) & Flurries At/Off or Right on the coastal area(s) with a NE & NW Wind(s)..
Seen it All to often commerical oystering & clamming at & around @BaldHead Island.. less than a 1/8 mile visibility then cross the river into South Port & be light Rain..
Or the same on the Lockwood Folly, or Shallotte Rivers, get about a `1/2 mile from the River(s) & be all rain..
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Brent
Member
I believe it look at the snow hole
Also I just found out Denver is nearly at the latest it's ever reported snow
thats not great. We got a lot of work to do if December is gonna be a big month
There’s still some signal for very light precip east of the mtns Monday PM-overnight, but the best odds I saw at 6z was ~50% chance of seeing QPF 0.01” or more for mainly I-40 corridor in central NC. This seems like a “someone in Forsyth co gets floodlight flurries” deal to me at the moment
Here are the progs for Nov 11th lows from the latest ICON/CMC/Euro/GFS/UKMET
1. GA
-SAV: 29/31/34/34/35
-NE ATL (Chamblee): 25/23/29/34/32
2. SC
-GSP: 23/21/29/27/29
-CAE: 28/32/33/32/34
3. NC
-CLT: 25/30/31/29/32
-RDU: 28/34/32/32/35
—————————
Average for each model for the 6 cities:
ICON: 26.3
CMC: 28.5
Euro: 31.3
GFS: 31.3
UKMET: 32.6
Any guesses for:
1. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do best?
2. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do worst?
———————
My guesses:
1. Best: Euro/GFS (tie)
2. Worst: ICON
Edit: I’m guessing that the average low for these 6 cities will be 30.5F.
1. GA
-SAV: 29/31/34/34/35
-NE ATL (Chamblee): 25/23/29/34/32
2. SC
-GSP: 23/21/29/27/29
-CAE: 28/32/33/32/34
3. NC
-CLT: 25/30/31/29/32
-RDU: 28/34/32/32/35
—————————
Average for each model for the 6 cities:
ICON: 26.3
CMC: 28.5
Euro: 31.3
GFS: 31.3
UKMET: 32.6
Any guesses for:
1. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do best?
2. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do worst?
———————
My guesses:
1. Best: Euro/GFS (tie)
2. Worst: ICON
Edit: I’m guessing that the average low for these 6 cities will be 30.5F.
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childhood shattered
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
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This guy never stops
Brent
Member
Just to clarify it's not the old almanac with Ben Franklin on it from 1792
The one I remember from childhood
Thank you. That one is the oldest continuously published periodical in the US.
Haha I led with that in my video today. I wanted to put the pizza buffet on it but didn't have time.
Brent
Member
Lol I've seen like 500 posts about it and most people aren't realizing its the lesser known one
Good looking pass of the upper wave incoming on the 12z RGEM with 925s crashing. Strong height falls and PVA would likely develop some lee side snow showers/flurries as the evening progressed.
Bigedd09
Member
Is this model reliable?
IMHO, RGEM is best inside 60 hours. That said, it is in agreement with other global solutions (Euro/UKMet/Icon) at H5, which is a good sign.
Just to be clear, I think the best chance for a few snow showers/flurries is Carolinas and VA (along and north of the vort max) although just south could also see a few as well. Any flakes flying this time of year is a major win!
Oh that jackpot is south of Fro. That little spot of blue is right over MBY. It doesn’t matter, Brad P says zero chance of flakes east of the mountains
Dynamics look crazy with this one! CMC, GFS, and NAM continue to inch up totals! High of 61 today!! No mountains to delay cold air tho! 
Nice little wave pass on the Euro this run as well
sigh alright i guess we have to pay attention for real at some point. i said it a few days ago though when you got a trough this silly you can make some BS happen. helps that, as we've said, the big ol euro vort max is lagging well behind the cold push. just that little bit deeper trough and little bit more dig made a big difference for wnc
Snow showers all the way down to Atlanta would be something. Of course I’m not here to see it (traveling) so I’m sure something epic will happen! Sigh.
Anyone else feel like the craziest weather each year in your town happens the one week you’re on vacation somewhere else? Tale as old as time for me
4 run trend of the wave on the Euro
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I was out of town for the December 2010 snowstorm
what are the 500mb temperature records for this time of year
You’ve got my cold air! They said 850s here would be about -45 by Sunday or so.
Highly unusual for October! Gotta be close to records down yalls way!! Impressive
Get one of these in January, let’s cook!
Bigedd09
Member
@Webberweather53 you think there's a chance for flurries east of the apps in nc/sc for next week?