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November 2025

NCSNOW said:
And then there's the Ukmet: Programed by Fro to jackpot his Backyard:

View attachment 176147

No need to post GFS, hardly has anything for even the mtns. Out to lunch still. The Short Range models will get to start taking a bite at things latter today.
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THIS is (Believable), RE: Bald Head Island & immediately off the Coast (second attachment & #3).. Sorta a Lake/Ocean Effect Snow(s) & Flurries At/Off or Right on the coastal area(s) with a NE & NW Wind(s)..
Seen it All to often commerical oystering & clamming at & around @BaldHead Island.. less than a 1/8 mile visibility then cross the river into South Port & be light Rain..
Or the same on the Lockwood Folly, or Shallotte Rivers, get about a `1/2 mile from the River(s) & be all rain..
 
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Bigedd09 said:
Does it have any precip making it over the mountains?
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There’s still some signal for very light precip east of the mtns Monday PM-overnight, but the best odds I saw at 6z was ~50% chance of seeing QPF 0.01” or more for mainly I-40 corridor in central NC. This seems like a “someone in Forsyth co gets floodlight flurries” deal to me at the moment
 
Here are the progs for Nov 11th lows from the latest ICON/CMC/Euro/GFS/UKMET

1. GA
-SAV: 29/31/34/34/35
-NE ATL (Chamblee): 25/23/29/34/32

2. SC
-GSP: 23/21/29/27/29
-CAE: 28/32/33/32/34

3. NC
-CLT: 25/30/31/29/32
-RDU: 28/34/32/32/35

—————————
Average for each model for the 6 cities:

ICON: 26.3
CMC: 28.5
Euro: 31.3
GFS: 31.3
UKMET: 32.6

Any guesses for:
1. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do best?

2. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do worst?
———————

My guesses:
1. Best: Euro/GFS (tie)
2. Worst: ICON

Edit: I’m guessing that the average low for these 6 cities will be 30.5F.
 
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Bigedd09 said:
Is this model reliable?
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IMHO, RGEM is best inside 60 hours. That said, it is in agreement with other global solutions (Euro/UKMet/Icon) at H5, which is a good sign.
rgem-all-conus-vort500_z500-2819200.pngecmwf-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-2819200.png
ukmo-all-conus-vort500_z500-2819200.pngicon-all-conus-vort500_z500-2819200.png
Just to be clear, I think the best chance for a few snow showers/flurries is Carolinas and VA (along and north of the vort max) although just south could also see a few as well. Any flakes flying this time of year is a major win!
 
NCSNOW said:
Overnight Euro

View attachment 176145


What the Germans are spiting out this a.m.. Lake effect snow Pamlico/Albermarle sound style:
View attachment 176146


And then there's the Ukmet: Programed by Fro to jackpot his Backyard:

View attachment 176147

No need to post GFS, hardly has anything for even the mtns. Out to lunch still. The Short Range models will get to start taking a bite at things latter today.
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Oh that jackpot is south of Fro. That little spot of blue is right over MBY. It doesn’t matter, Brad P says zero chance of flakes east of the mountains
 
Dynamics look crazy with this one! CMC, GFS, and NAM continue to inch up totals! High of 61 today!! No mountains to delay cold air tho! 😊IMG_3028.pngIMG_3027.pngIMG_3026.png
 
griteater said:
Nice little wave pass on the Euro this run as well

View attachment 176181View attachment 176182
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sigh alright i guess we have to pay attention for real at some point. i said it a few days ago though when you got a trough this silly you can make some BS happen. helps that, as we've said, the big ol euro vort max is lagging well behind the cold push. just that little bit deeper trough and little bit more dig made a big difference for wnc
 
griteater said:
Nice little wave pass on the Euro this run as well

View attachment 176181View attachment 176182
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Snow showers all the way down to Atlanta would be something. Of course I’m not here to see it (traveling) so I’m sure something epic will happen! Sigh.

Anyone else feel like the craziest weather each year in your town happens the one week you’re on vacation somewhere else? Tale as old as time for me
 
jrips27 said:
Snow showers all the way down to Atlanta would be something. Of course I’m not here to see it (traveling) so I’m sure something epic will happen! Sigh.

Anyone else feel like the craziest weather each year in your town happens the one week you’re on vacation somewhere else? Tale as old as time for me
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I was out of town for the December 2010 snowstorm 😑
 
jackendrickwx said:
what are the 500mb temperature records for this time of year


View attachment 176187
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You’ve got my cold air! They said 850s here would be about -45 by Sunday or so.
Highly unusual for October! Gotta be close to records down yalls way!! Impressive
Get one of these in January, let’s cook!
 
GSP NWS...

If the closed low sags far
enough south that it cross the area on Monday, don`t be surprised
to see a few snow flurries break containment east of the mountains,
with flurries possible across the foothills and Piedmont Monday
evening. The chance is low, but definitely nonzero. Snow
accumulations will vary, but the highest amounts are likely in the
northwest facing slopes of the Smokies and in the Roan Mountain
area, where 1-3" of snow is currently forecasted, with locally
higher amounts at elevations above 4500`. Less than one inch is
expected elsewhere along the NC/TN border for now until more
guidance from the CAMs come in on Saturday. Overnight lows Sunday
should end up 5-10 degrees below normal, with an uptick in winds and
wind gusts with the onset of CAA. Only Advisory criteria gusts exist
above 3500` at this time. That combined with the snow Sunday night
could create borderline blizzard conditions above 3500` along the
immediate TN border.
 
EmersonGA said:
Just saw a wooly worm with a lot of black on the head and a little in the tail. Lines up with a lot of forecasts this year.
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that correlates with harsher start to winter, milder in the middle, and a bit of a reversal again towards the end, right?
 
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RBR71 said:
33 this morning, coldest yet but still haven't touched freezing. Better frost though and Monday night I'll probably finally have to turn the heat on
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Looks like even RDU should hit freezing Monday night. A but late but I was wondering how long it was going to take.
 
Just want to hear all your thoughts on the dry air situation. Like many of you I’ve been getting quite excited over the potential for flurries to make it south of the mountains into northern AL, GA, and even parts of the northern piedmont of NC, but I decided to look at the relative humidity at the surface on the Euro and boy was it low (30-45%). Dew points in the low to mid teens. Is this going to be a severe limiting factor that dries up every last bit of moisture or something that will likely get resolved on short range/hi-res models (like the HRRR) with higher humidity inside the snow showers?

While I’ve seen similar events play out well with a vort-max, I don’t recall the last time there was one with a 522-516 thickness line aloft in the southeast (which I imagine is the root of the dry air problem), so I am quite new to this.
 
NCwx1992 said:
that correlates with harsher start to winter, milder in the middle, and a bit of a reversal again towards the end, right?
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I think so but I’m not well versed. We never had them growing up but I see them every year up here.
 
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