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Pattern November 2022

Tarheel1

I LOVE BBW’s AND CHICKEN WINGS
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The silver lining with -PNA is that it builds the reservoir of cold air in Canada where cold high pressure is sourced. An ideal progression would be a period of -PNA followed by a flip to -EPO/+PNA (throw in polar blocking for bonus). Flooding Alaska with low pressure for an extended period is what we don't want to see (+EPO) as there is downstream warming in Canada via chinook winds off the Canadian Rockies

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But a closer look, just has lobe after lobe of cold and troughs dumping into the Pacific NW and that’s no bueno! I’m not even that cold on this look! 🥲🥲
 

Itryatgolf

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The silver lining with -PNA is that it builds the reservoir of cold air in Canada where cold high pressure is sourced. An ideal progression would be a period of -PNA followed by a flip to -EPO/+PNA (throw in polar blocking for bonus). Flooding Alaska with low pressure for an extended period is what we don't want to see (+EPO) as there is downstream warming in Canada via chinook winds off the Canadian Rockies

3J28Rd0.gif
You definitely want the pacific on your side for cold weather. If the pacific is bad, it can cause a host of issues where we are chasing unicorns all winter, which wouldn't be good.
 

CaryWx

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Looks like at the end of this, a big ridge is going up through Alaska, and about to pinch off the brunt of cold in Canada and sent it to the states, to my untrained eye!? So looking good for mid- December
That's not really what I see. What I see is a repeating pattern that reloads but with a stubborn SER not budging too much. Positive take away is this is early half of Dec. If/When the pattern flips (later Dec?) like grit mentioned could happen we're entering prime climo
 

Chazwin

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I wasn't being serious. Just wanted to see how it felt to throw in the towel too. Nobody knows how the winter is going to turn out. All of the official sources just cite Nina and move on. Just because we know a lot of 3 letter alphabet soup doesn't mean we know what's going to happen. It's a rare 3rd year Nina. The SPV isn't strong. Already we see blocking showing up. Already, we're having a different Fall than usual. Already we're seeing very cold air building up and pushing south. I think we will see plenty of periods with potential snow and ice this winter. We'll end the winter with below normal temps and above normal snowfall, generally, for the SE. That's my real forecast.
Very well put. I’ve said now for a couple weeks that it really looks like we’re getting in a cycle that sees around 10-14 days above average followed by about 10-14 days below. It’s a cycle we’ve been in now since about the 2nd week of October… this is something that is almost more reminiscent of a neutral ENSO as opposed to a typical Niña. As for the -PNA being an absolute death nail for wintry weather, this just simply isn’t true. I know for sure that February 2004 occurred during a -PNA and I’m fairly certain that February 2014, and January 1988 did as well… someone please correct me if I’m wrong on those two
 
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Going to be wall to wall -PNA. Going to have to thread the needle on a reload to have a shot at a mix event or two. -EPO/+TNH/-PNA pattern preferred in weak/mod -ENSO. Combatting a -PDO and a seasonal neutral NAO/AO with pos lean, will make it hard to get cold. Likely see +3 - +7 through the cold season. +GLAAM with EMTor should allow for a week or two with MJO 7-1, but count on predom 4-6, especially with a +QBO and weak SPV. Hopefully, the VLAn won't reset before Walker cell intensification or we may be wishing for +3 - +7. I don't see how we get out of this pattern for any length of time this winter, tbh. Take any cold at all from this point forward on the models with a huge grain of salt. Don't say you weren't warned!

I wasn't being serious. Just wanted to see how it felt to throw in the towel too. Nobody knows how the winter is going to turn out. All of the official sources just cite Nina and move on. Just because we know a lot of 3 letter alphabet soup doesn't mean we know what's going to happen. It's a rare 3rd year Nina. The SPV isn't strong. Already we see blocking showing up. Already, we're having a different Fall than usual. Already we're seeing very cold air building up and pushing south. I think we will see plenty of periods with potential snow and ice this winter. We'll end the winter with below normal temps and above normal snowfall, generally, for the SE. That's my real forecast.
Somebody's playing on both sides of the fence 😄; well at least you're bound to find some grass one way or another.
 
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GROSS
Extended Forecast Share on facebook Share on twitter
Tue
Nov 29
Partly Cloudy

66°F
Wed
Nov 30
Partly Cloudy

67°F
Thu
Dec 1
Cloudy with Light Rain Showers

62°F
Fri
Dec 2
Mostly Cloudy with Light Rain Showers

67°F
Sat
Dec 3
Partly Cloudy

75°F
Sun
Dec 4
Sunny

76°F
Mon
Dec 5
Sunny

74°F
51°F
56°F
57°F
60°F
60°F
60°F
59°F
SE 5 MPH

ESE 8 MPH

SW 6 MPH
Precip 20%
SE 5 MPH
Precip 20%
S 4 MPH

WSW 5 MPH

WSW 7 MP

And it might be even warmer than that. This pattern we are about to enter in is the warmest pattern possible for winter. And it’s always the toughest to flip. Maybe 1 or 2 days of cold in between. Not a good winter pattern for snow and cold that’s for sure.


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Lickwx

Ever hear the tragedy of Darth Plagueis the Wise?
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frankly i'd rather december be a torch than jan or feb, wrightsville beach is a sublime place when its 77 on the day after christmas
I was there when it was 80 on New Years. Epic! Went swimming, had people stopping to stare at my insanity. I was in there for 30 minutes.
 

NickyBGuarantee

-NAO/+PNA/-AO
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I’m quite concerned about this strong -EPO in the long range. I’ve seen too many instances of strong -EPOs tilting too positively and popping a -PNA. I wouldn’t get sucked into a cold extended just yet unless someone like @Webberweather53 can contradict me.
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I agree a flex will occur with the south east ridge and I could see some big time temp gradients at times over week 2 time period. But this usually opens the door for a -NAO to develop down the line. A pretty dramatic flip in pattern could happen at that point. Thinking mid month December is a good time period for this to happen. Also we have to start watching mjo projections.. most bringing a 8-1-2 journey as we get into mid late December wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of CAD event at the start of that pattern flip
 

olhausen

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My window is more like December 22nd to February 25th. Looking for some good rain producers, for now.
Yep, I have had way more snow in March than I’ve had in December since living here in 2006. It’s fun to start tracking in December but I’ve learned to temper my expectations until early January for the most part. I’ve had snows of 2 inches or more in December just 1 year and it happened 2 different times that December in 2010.
 
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