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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Y’all need to get some of them tear away pants! With buttons up the sides! It’ll save you a lot of $$$
Sucks where wasn’t a mean from the EPS for what euro showed (sounds similar) but the pattern is there ig 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Gulf of Alaska ridge = 
Hopefully this is the usual long range EPS nonsense where it doesn't properly handle individual wave breaks in the NP jet, seen it so many times bust in forecasting -EPO, keeping the ridge too far south in the extended ensemble means
Hopefully this is the usual long range EPS nonsense where it doesn't properly handle individual wave breaks in the NP jet, seen it so many times bust in forecasting -EPO, keeping the ridge too far south in the extended ensemble means
Gulf of Alaska ridge =
Hopefully this is the usual long range EPS nonsense where it doesn't properly handle individual wave breaks in the NP jet, seen it so many times bust in forecasting -EPO, keeping the ridge too far south in the extended ensemble means
View attachment 54166
As bad as it is, I’m happy about the ridge over Canada!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Gulf of Alaska ridge =
Hopefully this is the usual long range EPS nonsense where it doesn't properly handle individual wave breaks in the NP jet, seen it so many times bust in forecasting -EPO, keeping the ridge too far south in the extended ensemble means
View attachment 54166
that blocking is saving our bacon with regards to a southeast ridge right there, but that GOA ridge is a highlight unfortunately of our pattern the last several years so it scares me
ajr
Member
Although this run was better than the last two over the NW.Gulf of Alaska ridge =
Hopefully this is the usual long range EPS nonsense where it doesn't properly handle individual wave breaks in the NP jet, seen it so many times bust in forecasting -EPO, keeping the ridge too far south in the extended ensemble means
View attachment 54166
Nam still looking solid for flurries and snow showers for Tennessee and parts of north Alabama and Georgia from Monday evening into Tuesday morning.
ajr
Member
Since there have been recent posts with people asking about some of the basics, here's a (brief) explanation for why people are excited about the third wave from the 12z ECMWF. This upper air pattern supports a coastal low forming (roughly) around the area circled in the red, and the steering currents would take it close to the coast. 
Furthermore, air will be plenty cold to support snow (the 850mb level is about 5000ft up -- my understanding is this is more accurate to model than surface temps at this range). Generally, 850 temps <0C can support snow, but as we get closer to the event, we would need to look at more detailed temperature profiles for warm pockets of air, which are unfortunately common in our area.
Furthermore, air will be plenty cold to support snow (the 850mb level is about 5000ft up -- my understanding is this is more accurate to model than surface temps at this range). Generally, 850 temps <0C can support snow, but as we get closer to the event, we would need to look at more detailed temperature profiles for warm pockets of air, which are unfortunately common in our area.
ICON for the second wave
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Damn it 
Meanwhile
Parker
Member
I am officially booked for gatlinburg. My wife and I will be staying at the same place we stayed in February of 2018 and we got 2 inches. I’m hoping for 3+ this go around. 18z GFS and ICON continued to look good. I will keep you guys posted and am looking forward to it!
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Enjoy it! You should be good for at least 2-4 with some gusty winds too.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Good luck !
Gfs is gonna phase earlier with that energy coming out of SE Canada
L