Thor
Member
Obvious Caveats apply but shows their could be potential early December for some. (Not me haha)
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
If you want to do something fun, go to Tropical Tidbits and roll through all frames of the 18z GFS from hour 300 - 384, using a full NH 500mb heights/mslp map. It will be worth it.
NoSnowATL
Member
pcbjr
Member
18Z GFS gives me a high of 80º and a low of 40º over the run ... right on target and right on schedule ... working like a Swiss watch ...
... now to set Little Ben and get up at quarter to 5:00 ...
... now to set Little Ben and get up at quarter to 5:00 ...
Golf7575
Member
Hi guys. I think the -pna is and will hurt us for a while. Im assuming its related to the mjo going into unfavorable phases is my guess. Maybe someone can chime in and let us know if thats true or not. Its always a safe bet to focus on euro and eps with teleconnections most of the time, but not all the time.
On the 18z GFS, the apocalyptic rainmageddon Thanksgiving storm, doesn’t even exist anymore, not a drop of rain on Thursday in the Carolinas! What a horrible model!
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Snowman63
Member
I love N. Florida and with temps like that this time of the year, it makes for a great place to live. Actually, 40° is a little chilly for the Sunshine state this early, but still very pleasant.
Interesting.. ?, while the gfs showed a interesting setup at hour 300 (yes hour 300 so it’s unlikely) with a sheared wave in the gulf, that look at H5 really matches its own ensemble with that -EPO, something to watch if your looking for a early season winter storm setup, but ofc this is long range so it will change 
Golf7575
Member
This message is for Ollie. Do you think mid December on will be our best opportunity for a more favorable pattern for cold and snow/ice? Just wondering buddy.
Jessy89
Member
The first 1-2 weeks of December has been good the last two years. Therefore that timeframe is worth watching.
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For the first week of December the MJO looks to have no real effect, so I don’t think that would have any real drive, but early indications point it to going into the colder phases in the LR, but don’t expect anything
I do find most Interesting, is the modeled setup in the Eastern pacific oscillation (EPO) and it’s potential to go into the negative phases, seen below
GFS
The only problem, I can see is if that High over Alaska moves too far west, a -PNA may form, forcing HP over the east. It’s not too far off from giving us a SER.
I think the pattern still bears watching, you live in Arkansas, so luckily you have a decent taking verbatim from the GEFS. Luckily, Believe it or not, we need the SER to come in so It can ever so slightly bring wintery energy from the north into the south. Otherwise the storm will stay north . We typically need a +PNA, but It’s more so a pattern for cold than snow.
Bottom line: if you’re hoping for snow, you probably will have to deal the the SER, with any hopes of getting suppression. If you like cold, Hug the GEFS for now. I wouldn’t get too excited about snow though. It’s not as big a signal as last December was.
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If I lived along or north of a line from okc to dc I would be pumped for the first 2 weeks of December. I still think there is a window where we could see something sneak into our region but areas just to our north look like they could do well in what might become a gradient pattern
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SPC forecasts out to 8 days now. Currently chance is too low to discuss at this range per their discussion.
Thought you were done posting until December?
We can always sneak in a good CAD setup with a -EPO. Maybe an ice threat before we look at snow towards January?For the first week of December the MJO looks to have no real effect, so I don’t think that would have any real drive, but early indications point it to going into the colder phases in the LR, but don’t expect anything
I do find most Interesting, is the modeled setup in the Eastern pacific oscillation (EPO) and it’s potential to go into the negative phases, seen below
GFS
The only problem, I can see is if that High over Alaska moves too far west, a -PNA may form, forcing HP over the east. It’s not too far off from giving us a SER.
I think the pattern still bears watching, you live in Arkansas, so luckily you have a decent taking verbatim from the GEFS. Luckily, Believe it or not, we need the SER to come in so It can ever so slightly bring wintery energy from the north into the south. Otherwise the storm will stay north . We typically need a +PNA, but It’s more so a pattern for cold than snow.
Bottom line: if you’re hoping for snow, you probably will have to deal the the SER, with any hopes of getting suppression. If you like cold, Hug the GEFS for now. I wouldn’t get too excited about snow though. It’s not as big a signal as last December was.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Stout Thanksgiving wedge will be downright chilly.
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'stout wedge' followed by an 'arctic dump' shall be my motto for this winter.
Precip totals for tonight and tomorrow doubled on modeling last night! GSP @ 1.58” now!??
tennessee storm
Member
November not going end nippy appears ...
ATLwxfan
Member