Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)

[Metwannabe]

The @Zander98al thread. Couple possible SE severe threats around New Year's

Have at it.

 

[jeremyt]

Are model severe threats any more reliable than winter weather a week out?

 

[weatherfide]

Euro looks unimpressive for severe around here through Tuesday. Also, it doesn't get into the 60's until next week. Warmth delayed but not denied?

 

[accu35]

My presumption though is the moisture will barely make it into the northern half of Alabama, just by the looks of it, warm front may even become a gulf hugger ?. It'll be interesting to see how this evolves wether it'll be a more significant threat or turn into a slop burger.

I can see places closer to me getting pretty rough here as temps top up to 70s

 

[Zander98al]

Your going to have a stream of moisture pumping into the south for a good week it looks like starting near new years eve. The amount of waves is unreal that will be barreling down the pipeline.

 

[TileDude]

Flooding is what we do best in this area.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Quick thoughts on the 18z gfs. This weekend looks like mostly a rain even. Except for maybe far far southern areas due to track of surface low. Another system come through mid week. That system could pose a linear threat with the surface low going well to the north. Will be an interesting period. Temperatures moderating, lots of moisture around, and lots of energy and short waves flying around.

 

[Zander98al]

Quick thoughts on the 18z gfs. This weekend looks like mostly a rain even. Except for maybe far far southern areas due to track of surface low. Another system come through mid week. That system could pose a linear threat with the surface low going well to the north. Will be an interesting period. Temperatures moderating, lots of moisture around, and lots of energy and short waves flying around.

Weekend system definitely has trouble getting off the coast. It'll be battling some CAD.

 

[proud dad]

Flooding is what we do best in this area.

Ain’t that the truth! Turkey creek gonna be rolling ?

 

[Zander98al]

Forecast rainfall by the GFS. Roughly this Friday to next Wednesday on the accumulations. Around a 5 day span.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

On to the severe weather weenie train I come become winter weather is a fail so far

 

[weatherfide]

I'm not seeing any CAPE. The severe weather train may be derailed.

 

[tennessee storm]

I'm not seeing any CAPE. The severe weather train may be derailed.

Looking good me going forward be honest … fixing get Buisy next couple weeks severe wise

 

[Zander98al]

I'm not seeing any CAPE. The severe weather train may be derailed.

Usually it'll rise the closer we get, intriguingly enough near the 7 day period on some of the global models it takes a hint at a classic low position for snow for Alabama lol.

 

[Zander98al]

This may be a competition to see which shortwave gets it's warm front the furthest off the Gulf lol. Probably have some massive storm totals around the Florida panhandle Alabama coast area.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Cape

 

[DadOfJax]

Looking good me going forward be honest … fixing get Buisy next couple weeks severe wise

If by busy, you mean rain, then yes.

 

[tennessee storm]

If by busy, you mean rain, then yes.

Yeah rain will be part of it …

 

[weatherfide]

Cape View attachment 128782View attachment 128783View attachment 128784

Yes, the second round has the most potential for severe in the Atlanta area. The first one is DOA with regard to severe, here, I think. Watching next week closely.

 

[Zander98al]

Yeah rain will be part of it …

With how many short waves coming through, I'd say it'll be fairly busy. Rolling the dice saying it wont when there's so many chances. More so of a question how far north each shortwave pushes the warm front north. Sometimes I think people get there enjoyment out of derailing somebody's thinking and throwing out rebuttals to sound ideas. ? Lol