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Naughty November

Myfrotho704_ said:
Icon looked liked it would head for glory if it went passed hour 180, looks like the trough would make it here first then the southern stream wave second View attachment 52851
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I still stand by my idea from days ago that w/ a strong subtropical jet, we could have a fighting chance to see something out of this if the northern stream plays ball
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Icon looked liked it would head for glory if it went passed hour 180, looks like the trough would make it here first then the southern stream wave second View attachment 52851
Click to expand...

Wow, the subtropical jet is absolutely raging on the ICON. Very rarely see a 125 kt jet streak over northern Mexico. We definitely have some of the large-scale ingredients in place to see a particularly strong mid-latitude cyclone traverse across the south, we just have to get some cooperation from the northern branch of the jet to make it happen

1606017146500.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow, the subtropical jet is absolutely raging on the ICON. Very rarely see a 125 kt jet streak over northern Mexico. We definitely have some of the large-scale ingredients in place to see a particularly strong mid-latitude cyclone traverse across the south, we just have to get some cooperation from the northern branch of the jet to make it happen

View attachment 52853
Click to expand...
Nice precip shield! Truly getting the December 2018 vibes on this run.
E6444BC5-F057-4CD9-B5AA-E05587E72F29.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow, the subtropical jet is absolutely raging on the ICON. Very rarely see a 125 kt jet streak over northern Mexico. We definitely have some of the large-scale ingredients in place to see a particularly strong mid-latitude cyclone traverse across the south, we just have to get some cooperation from the northern branch of the jet to make it happen

View attachment 52853
Click to expand...

Here's the GEFS as a point of comparison. Hostile takeover by the subtropical jet

1606018418415.png
 
I think that some of the things I’ve observed in the ICON vs the GFS, is #1 The phasing of the two s/w’s in red. If that happens, then the trough can move into the NE. #2 Obviously, we need the main trough more neutrally tilted rather than positive so it doesn’t waste our moisture.
3B0FAE9F-0E04-40B9-92AF-D2472DA34E78.jpeg
 
Ollie Williams said:
I think that some of the things I’ve observed in the ICON vs the GFS, is #1 The phasing of the two s/w’s in red. If that happens, then the trough can move into the NE. #2 Obviously, we need the main trough more neutrally tilted rather than positive so it doesn’t waste our moisture.
View attachment 52857
Click to expand...
No weenie stuff, but I could see the gfs progressive bias Being a issue here
 
Ollie Williams said:
Obviously a lot of different setups/solution, The pattern is very encouraging, but I wouldn’t hold my breath (even though I obviously am). ;)
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same, staring at this same exact longwave pattern has gotten to me, I’ve forgot the joy of a legit winter storm 50758DCF-0D22-47BA-A3EA-5E85B3D1F4C3.png
 
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