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Naughty November

IMO, the only way we get snow out of this setup is if we trend stronger w/ the ridge over western Canada. Otherwise, troughs will phase, and we see severe. The ICON has that look, the CMC did but lost it, again, uphill battle.

Yeah the problem if we get severe, is that it would
Likely be pretty high end due to a big STJ feeding into it (April’s setups for example l)
 
Gefs actually looks a bit better interestingly
There were a couple of members that got on board, but not enough to really make a point. However, what does encourage me is the shift from heights from the NE to the SE/MA, which signals more separation. Ideally, we need it to be near AL, GA.
06z
067z.png
12z
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-z500_anom-6824000.png
 
How is it that we get a near strong La Niña, yet we get a classic El Niño pattern?
Same way we get a Nina pattern in a Nino! It's time for us to realize we don't have a clue what the weather will do. Even the greatest minds on the planet can't predict it. That's not a knock on them just how it is. I always go warm because it has won out 90% of the time in the recent past and I'm just playing the odds that it will continue, not because I really have any clue.
 
Womp
gfs_T2m_seus_21.png
 
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