I like my means skewed ?
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Naughty November
- Thread starter LickWx
- Start date
Definitely a naughty member... 
Too bad that the data server I use for the GEFS maps hasn’t updated since the upgrade, otherwise, I’d be mapping this beaut galore.
Too bad that the data server I use for the GEFS maps hasn’t updated since the upgrade, otherwise, I’d be mapping this beaut galore.
I'd likely have to ban myself
1/30 chance , if you add 2020 to equation you get member 20, start the thread 
Broken024
Member
Can you imagine the melt down from the raleigh folks if Columbia gets smashed and Raleigh rains ?Definitely a naughty member...
Too bad that the data server I use for the GEFS maps hasn’t updated since the upgrade, otherwise, I’d be mapping this beaut galore.
View attachment 52831
Did you just buy Weathermodels.com because of that one member?
Broken024
Member
One of these is the outlier... and I am all in on it.
Nah I’ve had it since June
Oh okay, I was just wondering since I haven’t seen you post anything with it, but now I remember. That sounds like something I would have done.
Still think 20% sleet-rain mix chance mostly in west for the mtns Monday morning. 10% chance in blue just east of the there if heavier returns develop before 9am. Temps above freezing no issues...just some dry air could help give first taste of winter precip for a few. 
Looks like it’s centered over San Angelo. Four hour drive from DFW airport.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Extremely favorable double barrel, coupled jet structure being depicted here by day 9-10 on the GEFS. Rapid cyclogenesis would be heavily favored off the Carolina coast here.
I'm curious what your overall thoughts are on this setup. Looking at all the models, very little operational/ensemble runs have anything snowy. Taking verbatim, would you say that there's more to it? Just asking because It's frustrating to see nice synoptic, but terrible means.
Oh my
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The overall pattern seems to support an inland or lakes cutter w/ the potential for secondary cyclogenesis along the trailing frontal boundary near the Atlantic coast. There's so much non-linearity that gets realized in a setup like it contributes to unusually large spread >>> ensemble means will inherently look like crap beyond day 5-7.
The GEFS's progressive bias is rearing its ugly head again, notice the MSLPa trend near the Carolina & SE US coast
So do you think we may start to see something on the ensembles in the next 2-4 days?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, we'll start to at least see hints of it in the next couple days if anything of significance were to emerge. I'm leaning yes atm, whether that's wintry precip or not remains to be seen but won't take much to see a big shot of cold air here
Wow are we finally at the point of model watching for actual possible events ... La Niña ??? More like la NADA !! Let’s get this snow train off to a good start! Lord knows we will probably need a head start for this winters La Niña set ups