Pattern Muddy March 2021

[Myfrotho704_]

WOW GEFS ?? shows That there is lots of potential on the table for the next cold pattern ... big dogs might start popping up on the operationals soon

Only 4/30 members have anything good at hour 330...

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Only 4/30 members have anything good at hour 330...

I counted at least 8 with some sort of wintry potential in NC

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol I remember when the euro was showing a deep trough farther into the SE

 

[GaWx]

Unlike Goofy, CAD fail on King

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Unlike GView attachment 78164oofy, CAD fail on King

that’s a strange upper air pattern no doubt

 

[GaWx]

that’s a strange upper air pattern no doubt

I ask this in all seriousness. Has the King ever been tossed??

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I ask this in all seriousness. Has the King ever been tossed??

Yeah Definitely has been tossed before, in all seriousness that pattern popping up on the GFS/Euro looks like one that’s gonna change a whole lot more then it typically would, especially with those cutoffs

 

[Myfrotho704_]

what a mess, almost every TPV/ULL is dualed

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oth, a much warmer run ! It’s a whole warmup again

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’m a fan of the euro

 

[GaWx]

Oth, a much warmer run ! It’s a whole warmup againView attachment 78168View attachment 78169

Hey Fro. You know if you and I get together, we may be able to get this Euro tossed. You don't really like it do you? Yeah, it is pretty warm late, but it is just a big unreliable mess. What say you? You wanna get this tossed?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hey Fro. You know if you and I get together, we may be able to get this Euro tossed. You don't really like it do you? Yeah, it is pretty warm late, but it is just a big unreliable mess. What say you? You wanna get this tossed?

I love the warmth, but it had so many moving pieces/crazy looks towards the end of the run that looked unrealistic, I say let’s toss, but i wonder what EPS shows because lately it hasn’t been matching the euro

 

[GaWx]

Thanks, Fro. EPS much better!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Still a SER but nothing like the euro
Higher heights this run tho

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Now that’s comfy weather

 

[GaWx]

Still a SER but nothing like the euro View attachment 78176View attachment 78177
Higher heights this run tho View attachment 78178

My obs fwiw:

1. Overall per the data I see, the 15 day 0Z Euro ens was about a wash vs the 12Z in the SE and much of the country as far as average temp.
2. I see a larger than average variance between the members indicating higher than normal uncertainty.
3. Even with the cold nights to start this week, week #2 is significantly colder than week #1.
4. This run should make us both and many others happy, You still get your warmth late week/weekend, and I still get my cooldown after the weekend.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

what a mess, almost every TPV/ULL is dualed View attachment 78167

This but actually it’s anyone’s game in this pattern .. who will shoot their shot tho ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Those are some insane spreads, cold be in the upper 70s or lower 20s, lol

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Those are some insane spreads, cold be in the upper 70s or lower 20s, lol View attachment 78182View attachment 78183

This is why I say (and push for slightly cause I’m weenie and mad I got teased with a 1.5 inch thundersnow plaster bomb) that there is real cold possibly coming into the picture and whenever there is cold you gotta look for that system to be around

 

[EmersonGA]

26.2 again and still dropping.