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Pattern Muddy March 2021

That SER is a monster lol, even with a stronger ridge in the west on top the cutoff the southeast ridge is stronger on the icon 59CE86D3-04D5-42F5-8B6B-3703DD56E6DA.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That SER is a monster lol, even with a stronger ridge in the west on top the cutoff the southeast ridge is stronger on the icon View attachment 78056
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That SER will give the SE a 3-4 day torchy period which I’m sure you’ll absolutely love but then its destiny is to give up the ghost to the MJO and a big Arctic high/new batch of extremely cold air (with cross polar element) that will likely first infiltrate NW Canada March 13
before overtaking much of W and C Canada 3/15. If not overdone due to cold bias, this will bring lows as cold as -40s and highs as cold as -30s in parts of N Canada. I’ll be watching like a hawk as Bastardi has been onto this idea of a US cold invasion for much of this week.
Keep in mind that the Arctic north of 80N has just reached its coldest in a year!

If y’all thought St Patrick’s day was going to be a walk in the park in shorts, you may want to reassess that idea.
 
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GaWx said:
That SER will give the SE a 3-4 day torchy period which I’m sure you’ll absolutely love but then its destiny is to give up the ghost to the MJO and a big Arctic high/new batch of extremely cold air (with cross polar element) that will likely first infiltrate NW Canada March 13
before overtaking much of W and C Canada 3/15. If not overdone due to cold bias, this will bring lows as cold as -40s and highs as cold as -30s in parts of N Canada. I’ll be watching like a hawk as Baatardi has been onto this idea of a US cold invasion for much of this week.
Keep in mind that the Arctic north of 80N has just reached its coldest in a year!
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Doesn’t matter how cold the Arctic is, doesn’t translate to us getting the coldest . Especially not in mid March ! Keep in mind average in the upper south in mid March is around 64.... it would take a deviation of 24 degrees just to get a 40 degree high ! 32 to even dream of an ice day which mind you has happened in March only a handful of times last 130 years( 5-7 for raleigh if I’m not mistaken ). I don’t see what your seeing man but don’t count on any bone shattering cold because it just ain’t happening whether it gets below normal or not! Plus your average high is like 72 mid March ? 70? 20 degrees below avg is barely enough for a high of 50! Just saying but I don’t see how the Arctic being the coldest means much for us .
 
Lickwx said:
Doesn’t matter how cold the Arctic is, doesn’t translate to us getting the coldest . Especially not in mid March ! Keep in mind average in the upper south in mid March is around 64.... it would take a deviation of 24 degrees just to get a 40 degree high ! 32 to even dream of an ice day which mind you has happened in March only a handful of times last 130 years( 5-7 for raleigh if I’m not mistaken ). I don’t see what your seeing man but don’t count on any bone shattering cold because it just ain’t happening whether it gets below normal or not! Plus your average high is like 72 mid March ? 70? 20 degrees below avg is barely enough for a high of 50! Just saying but I don’t see how the Arctic being the coldest means much for us .
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I didn’t say anything about it potentially giving us the coldest of the season. But I am saying it has the potential to get us well below normal. A 50 degree high down here around 3/17 or so would be quite noteworthy and could even give me and @pcbjr fezzes.
 
GaWx said:
I didn’t say anything about it potentially giving us the coldest of the season. But I am saying it has the potential to get us well below normal. A 50 degree high down here around 3/17 or so would be quite noteworthy and could even give me and @pcbjr fezzes.
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That’s fair enough but again 50 is already pushing the envelope for how cold you can get really without cloud cover and precip to cool you more . Pretty much coldest possible airmass for you.
 
Lickwx said:
That’s fair enough but again 50 is already pushing the envelope for how cold you can get really without cloud cover and precip to cool you more . Pretty much coldest possible airmass for you.
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Agreed for most part. More realistically, highs well into the 50s with full sun is what I’d hope for here, along with a couple of nights with possible freezes or at least solid frosts. Yes a high right at 50 with full sunshine would be really pushing it on or near 3/17 down here and would require one of the coldest air masses so late in the season.
 
Hot off the press: Because so few members have been tossing the 18Z recently, the very generous Southern Wx staff has just granted a special toss option for the 0Z for one day only! So, we toss. Clearly Goofy got hold of some crack this evening.

Meanwhile, enjoying a great chilly weekend with enjoyable “strolling”.
 
It does have one but it looks like the GEFS is struggling to build heights in the east due to the first shortwave E713FE8C-13FB-46E2-975F-B562ECBDB3C3.png9F6B00CB-0D9B-4C63-8A82-22CAF7DAD08D.png
 
Euro looks like its gonna come in cooler (no wintry wx ofc)
It’s also the most aggressive model with the trough out of all models
 
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