Can we shove the wave in the pacific East please over the west. Thank you
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Can we shove the wave in the pacific East please over the west. Thank you
Buried in snow on the EPS
Why 
We can only hope as it is the unreliable CFS.
72F
Crazy how some would rather it be raining in the 40s and 30s then this sort of stuff. 73F here, about to grill some barbecue drumsticks
Surprised to see this from the NAM given its normally the most aggressive with wudges 
LickWx
Member
76 in Raleigh so far !
It has been amazing all week long here, too! But there's a huge difference between 60s/70s with dewpoints in the 10s-40s (like this week. which I've loved every bit of) vs 80s-100s with dewpoints in the 60s-70s, which you have implied you love, too.
Bottom line: DS for DF! If someone likes cold rain, that's fine. If someone likes 100s with dewpoints in the 80s, that's fine too.
Last edited:
iGRXY
Member
Temps in the 60's with low DPs is fantastic. Just need some severe weather to rumble through during the daytime hours.
Be careful fire danger will be up with these hot temps and low RHs
I personally disagree about "needing" severe weather for that situation or any rain at all. I'd prefer it stay dry so I can enjoy the outdoors.
18z ICON backed off SE Canada vortex a bit (for the weekend wedge) sat/sun might be Better
LickWx
Member
Fix the weekend wedge and then we can fix the weekday wedge . One wedge at a time. Still waiting on @NickyBGuarantee to explain why he likes 34 degree rains more than 60 degree sunshine ! 70s this weekend book it!
Fro,
I love your map, but you'll love this one, which is the average of the last 20 runs of the CFSv2. Of course, the CFS generally sucks in accuracy:
Man that looks awesome, but I’ve seemingly noticed that the climate models love to spit out the H5 pattern that’s typically seen with the state of the ENSO, for example this winter they were showing the overall La Niña pattern with a SER this winter with a trough in the PNW/AK and instead we got blockbuster blocking
Damn so close 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ahh yes the cold rain pattern! Beautiful
Maybe some severe wx with that sort of look aswell given its easier in April to push warm sector further north but it is the CFSv2 control
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
La Nina forcing in April gives you +PNA/cool eastern US.
Bottomless cold rain ?
Bottomless cold rain ?
LickWx
Member
It will end eventually ! Going on 4 months of below normal weather if March is below ! Nothing lasts forever .
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The subseasonal look we're fixing to get into in week 2 & beyond is anti- SE ridge/anti-warmth
Let’s get some Indian Ocean convection into May, let’s May 2019 again ?,hope we get a record breaking summer to pay for this cool crap
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Man idk about you guys but I sure do love me some +PNA in late March.
Cold rain city here we come!
Cold rain city here we come!
at least BN days under a sunny cold and dry ULT aren’t so bad anymore around that range, getting to that time of year where you can get upper 50s/low 60s under ULTs, especially with the dry NW flow
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
When was the last time those plots got something right?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
After these next few days, where tf is the warmth coming from? Asking for a friend...
I would be more upset if I was staring at this in early March wanting warmth but averages are rising quick, I’ll take some 50s and rain, always light at the end of the tunnel, and typically with +PNAs you get some dry days under the trough, I’ll take it honestly (in fact we’re getting to that time of year where you can start getting convection under upper level troughs)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ehh, gonna have to say those plots aren't too shabby... They helped me key in on the potential for cooler weather (anomaly-wise) late in the month a week or so ago, or at least that we weren't gonna have wall-to-wall torch as some hoped for. Looks to be panning out thus far.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
the sun ?
Any sort of hope after this for a flash drought and 80s lol
Thanks, Webb! I never knew that.
So, I decided to check KATL Aprils for lingering La Nina: 1950, 1955, 1956, 1971, 1974, 1975, 1985, 1989, 1999, 2000, 2008, and 2011 and sire enough it supports your finding.
I got the following for these 12:
- 4 solidly BN
- 3 slightly BN
- 1 NN
- 1 slightly AN
- 3 solidly AN
So, some advantage for BN side over AN side (7-4) but the sample size is pretty small. I need to expand back into the 1800s and would use your tables to do so if I do it.
Pain. Oth haha favorable Forcing for TC activity but it’s still to early 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At that point, it's honestly gonna start to depend a little on the Atlantic hurricane season which starts (officially) in May this year
Truly amazing how much the mountains ---- us over, rest of the SE is laughing at us 
@NickyBGuarantee would love this run of the GFS, as it’s a cloudy/rainy wedge mon-wed !!