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Pattern Muddy March 2021

Accumulated wintry precip. of some sort (likely mainly ZR) has increased substantially in N NC on both the 12Z GEFS and EPS vs earlier runs, which had nothing:

gfsen_12_sf_us_hr-0048_0186.png

ecmen_12_sf_us_hr-0048_0186.png

Edit: Maybe this is really snow/sleet? The clown maps can be deceiving depending on the algorithms used.
 
GaWx said:
Accumulated wintry precip. of some sort (likely mainly ZR) has increased substantially in N NC on both the 12Z GEFS and EPS vs earlier runs, which had nothing:

View attachment 78330

View attachment 78331
Click to expand...
It’s not impossible but there’s basically no snowpack to our north as it’s melted and there’s been barely any the last 2 weeks and this time of year it’s harder for colder air to make it this far south with CAD highs, especially in mid March, maybe northern VA could Have issues tho D76CEEDF-DBA2-45C7-8BCD-8A53ADCA3D74.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s not impossible but there’s basically no snowpack to our north as it’s melted and there’s been barely any the last 2 weeks and this time of year it’s harder for colder air to make it this far south with CAD highs, especially in mid March, maybe northern VA could Have issues tho View attachment 78332
Click to expand...

I agree that ZR is the major threat for NC as of now with 850s several above 0C (which is common with strong wedges in general) although I'll be following trends. Keep in mind that if the models aren't overdoing it too much due to persistent cold bias (always a concern), the airmass coming through Canada is frigid with sub -30 C at 850 in S Ontario as of 12Z on 3/15! So, even if we take away 4C for cold bias, that would still be sub -26C, which would still be 14C+ BN.

The 12Z Goofy is likely overdoing it substantially, but fwiw, it has as cold as 32 F colder than normal 3/14 AM just south of Hudson Bay. Add 10 F and they'd still be 22 BN.
 
GaWx said:
Accumulated wintry precip. of some sort (likely mainly ZR) has increased substantially in N NC on both the 12Z GEFS and EPS vs earlier runs, which had nothing:

View attachment 78330

View attachment 78331

Edit: Maybe this is really snow/sleet? The clown maps can be deceiving depending on the algorithms used.
Click to expand...

200.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol other then the super marginal CAD stuff, we’ve lost so much true arctic cold air over The US on all modes the last several days, for example, the GFS View attachment 78333
Click to expand...

Cold bias has dominated on all of the models throughout most of the S and E US but with the very important exception of CAD wedges, in which case the bias has likely continued warm.
 
Amazingly comfy wx for outdoors here in SAV: check out that RH of only 17%!
HUNTER AFB SUNNY 70 23 17 E3 30.47F

The low was 34 (thanks to the strong surface high parked overhead), meaning at least a 36 F rise!
HUNTER AAF CLEAR 34 31 88 CALM 30.51R

The low at Hunter was 32 yesterday. All of this is thankfully keeping things largely dormant for a bit longer although the pine pollen is now just getting going and there is some budding. In stark contrast, my azaleas were already blooming in early Feb the last 2 years and the wasps were already out in Feb (and even coming into my house).

I've thought about this much later dormancy some more. Obviously the much cooler Feb/early Mar has helped. But I wonder if the very warm Nov, which delayed autumnal changes til well into Dec,, is playing a part. If things went to sleep so late, maybe that alone means they'll wake up later than normal. I mean if a good number of trees didn't even lose their leaves til late Dec., maybe they need til well into March to get them back. Add a more normal Feb/early Mar and there you go. Same for the bugs?
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Well at least we’ve done a good job at avoiding them (bad ones) the last 2 weeks if that means much, sigh
Click to expand...

Fro,
CHARLOTTE PTSUNNY 70 19 14 SW8 30.43F

14% RH and 70F! Similar to what we're having now, you can't complain about this. Have you gone outside today to enjoy instead of just worrying about an increasingly likely cold wedge for a week from now?
 
If the Atlantic pattern could stop being a ***** and relax, we could get really warm, that’s a atrocious pacific FE2EBD9A-7D40-4198-A76E-9BE6E0C1DD4A.png
 
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