Interesting trend with the S/S wave for areas back in WNC on the para, a little slower wave that had a slightly better tilt
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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
LovingGulfLows
Member
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- Jan 5, 2017
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Longed believed models are underestimating the cold air from the trough.
GFS carries 60s further north than the 12k, also may be 1-2F low for some areas since there's still a little heating left after 18zAnd the 12k for Thursday
Smells like last ThursdayGFS carries 60s further north than the 12k, also may be 1-2F low for some areas since there's still a little heating left after 18z
lexxnchloe
Member
Its a good thing im ready.
?
Downeastnc
Member
Will be sad and hilarious for the NW trend to not happen when we actually need it too versus every other time when it screws us....
What really sucks is this could easily turn into something special....especially for folks in the eastern half of NC.....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm honestly just trying to say it's way too early for any sentiment like this, we got a long ways to go w/ this one.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Anytime you see multiple-several waves interacting between different branches of the jet like this, you should almost always assume forecast confidence is gonna be much lower than usual as their interactions cause larger than usual non-linear growth in forecast errors & thus larger uncertainties that rapidly grow upsacle and propagate forward in time.
Today's NWP models are generally undispersed (i.e. there is usually too little spread between & amongst ensemble members) to handle situations like this and you'll rarely get a full, legitimate suite of forecast outcomes. It's the kind of situation you should immediately recognize as a point of contention whether you're a meteorologist, a student, or interested hobbyist.
Today's NWP models are generally undispersed (i.e. there is usually too little spread between & amongst ensemble members) to handle situations like this and you'll rarely get a full, legitimate suite of forecast outcomes. It's the kind of situation you should immediately recognize as a point of contention whether you're a meteorologist, a student, or interested hobbyist.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Sleeting in Central Georgia !
lexxnchloe
Member
Its good to take a nap. congrats
Cold bias GEM is all in on warmth after the cool shot, I’m all in
A lot of the models bringing the cold hammer back down after the brief warmup the models are showing ... well at least it’ll be nice while it’s here
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 12z CMC is the worst looking pattern of all the models for this weekend and has our polar jet vort max going over Lake Ontario. Knowing how bad this model often is in the medium range, it gives me some hope that the extremely suppressed/flat camp is going to be more wrong here. ?
dsaur
Member
Well, the 0 line is closer to me, and the rain underneath is just as close, probably closer, I think I could see some onset sleet late week...at least, lol My low this winter was in the 20's. That's so pitiful, I need some winter joy, lol. I realize the moles release a lot of methane with their experiments, but this personal climate change thing going on over me, has to stop.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
It's been sleeting in LaGrange so maybe you will get some too ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol. Please verify so the bugs and weeds die.
