FamouslyHot
Member
I posted another reply without seeing this. I do know the new gfs is supposed to be much more sensitive for tropical development. Looks like we have a good example on its very first day!
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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I posted another reply without seeing this. I do know the new gfs is supposed to be much more sensitive for tropical development. Looks like we have a good example on its very first day!
Yep it worked
Okay now this is something I can endorse .. wait would this be severe weather or run of the mill
More sensitive for tropical dev, which includes more false alarms than the prior version. Just when we got a version that didn’t keep spitting out a bunch of fakes.
Could be both
Made it up to 59 but it's starting to rain now
Is that Tucson?
Let’s just turn every pattern favorable for severe weather I guess 
Top shelf...
To give a good example of the new GFS reducing the cold bias of the prior version:
Yesterday’s 6Z GFS, the last run of the old version, along with prior runs all had only 68-69 for a high at KSAV yesterday:
wxweb.meteostar.com
The first new version run, yesterday’s 12Z, had 73 and the 18Z of yesterday had 74. The actual high was 78:
wxweb.meteostar.com
So, during the very short term, the old version runs were too cold with KSAV Monday high by a whopping 9-10! The first two new GFS runs were too cold by “only” 4-5. So, a nice reduction in cold bias there.
By the way, the warmer new version GFS runs had nothing to do with cloud cover, as that was similar on the runs of both versions.
Yesterday’s 6Z GFS, the last run of the old version, along with prior runs all had only 68-69 for a high at KSAV yesterday:
MeteoStar Home > User
The first new version run, yesterday’s 12Z, had 73 and the 18Z of yesterday had 74. The actual high was 78:
MeteoStar Home > User
So, during the very short term, the old version runs were too cold with KSAV Monday high by a whopping 9-10! The first two new GFS runs were too cold by “only” 4-5. So, a nice reduction in cold bias there.
By the way, the warmer new version GFS runs had nothing to do with cloud cover, as that was similar on the runs of both versions.
FamouslyHot
Member
Can't miss a tropical threat if everything is a tropical threat ?More sensitive for tropical dev, which includes more false alarms than the prior version. Just when we got a version that didn’t keep spitting out a bunch of fakes.
Sunday might be a day where we get organized thunderstorms off the mountains
Hopefully they didn’t create another Crazy Uncle, Bastardi’s nickname for an older version of the CMC which had so many fake TCs that it became a laughingstock. It kind of is intuitive that a warmer GFS version would have more TC geneses.
We’ll know if @Ollie Williams follows them in one of his threads.
Never to early for a MCS 
We’re so close to dumping this out west 
We don’t wanna push for these warm patterns too much. Soon it won’t be spring but summer and those warm pattern will give u tons of heat and humidity and 0 storm activity .. that is the dreaded combo
Meh if we get stuck in a SER then there would probably be storms but a huge ridge East of the Rockies like how some modes have in the LR = no rain
She’s headed west 
Lol