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Pattern Muddy March 2021

Lol wasn't it mack or jimmy that said you gotta hear the tornado to get snow?

Yeah I mean that big dog in late Feb 1989 came after a 70 degree severe weather day, it was 76 on Feb 21st and the high on the 24th was 33 with 9" of snow.....

Then there was the Mar 1984 snow....check out this for the 3 days around that event.....got 7" of snow and the high temp was never under 40 the day before the day of or the day after lol...

1983-03-24443037.0-17.82800.000.00
1983-03-25492939.0-16.12600.186.9M
1983-03-26562641.0-14.42400.000.0M
 
The GFS op, which is not as cold biased as most other models, has me not getting out of the 50s all weekend long with solid NE winds. It shows only 48 for the daytime high on Saturday along with cloudy and light rain enhanced by a weak low offshore well to the SE. It's projecting a high the evening before only in the low 50s, which would be some 10 BN vs the coldest midwinter norm highs!

View attachment 79210
I’m looking forward to this Friday and the weekend in general. Might not make it to 50 on Friday and mostly likely will hit the freezing mark Saturday morning.
 
I made a pair of maps for the winter storms that struck the Carolinas in mid-March 1885. Looked thru a ton of old newspaper reports, AMS MWR (thanks @Eric & @GaWx), paired w/ NOAA's 20th century reanalysis version 3 for a synoptic overview.

15" fell in Fayetteville in the 2nd storm on the 21st-22nd.


View attachment 79294

View attachment 79293
That would be incredible to see that much snow in the south this late in the season. I don’t think I’ve had even a 2 inch plus snow later then March 10th-15th since living here in 2006.
 
CHA now at 4.5" of rain since Monday morning. Good chance we finish with 6+ with the severe convection rolling thru later tonight. Yep, Muddy March indeed.





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