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Pattern Muddy March 2021

The GFS op, which is not as cold biased as most other models, has me not getting out of the 50s all weekend long with solid NE winds. It shows only 48 for the daytime high on Saturday along with cloudy and light rain enhanced by a weak low offshore well to the SE. It's projecting a high the evening before only in the low 50s, which would be some 10 BN vs the coldest midwinter norm highs!

gfsop_18_t2ms_gc_h_0096.png
 
Models starting to hint at yet another synoptic scale pattern favorable for severe weather, it’s springtime F8C2E61C-C365-4480-82C8-01ADAE222DEC.png61B13720-0401-470A-AA43-ACC8C57D90C5.pngB42C327C-6BB0-454F-A5CC-85BE280C2BB4.png
 
GaWx said:
The GFS op, which is not as cold biased as most other models, has me not getting out of the 50s all weekend long with solid NE winds. It shows only 48 for the daytime high on Saturday along with cloudy and light rain enhanced by a weak low offshore well to the SE. It's projecting a high the evening before only in the low 50s, which would be some 10 BN vs the coldest midwinter norm highs!
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The 0Z GFS is even a little colder than the 18Z with only ~45 throughout the afternoon for the SAV area. At the same time, while raining 850s are down to a mere +1 to +2, which is within the prime territory for sleet especially when there is a wedge with steady precip. and the surface is near or below 32. Well the surface won't be anywhere near 32, but I still wonder if there is a chance for a few pellets to be mixed with the cold rain. That has actually occurred as late as March 28th (in 1955)! Regardless, this weekend is going to resemble a cold midwinter period as the normal high for mid Jan is a much higher 60.

Check out these cold anomalies! Way on down at Waycross, GA, it is raining with only 42-43 much of the afternoon!

gfsop_00_2mtpdp_gc_h_0090.png
 
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Eric said:
Flashback to St. Patrick's Day 1885 - Charlotte received nearly 10" of snow on March 17-18. Another snowstorm several days later on March 22 dropped 2" of snow on the city.

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I found an even more impressive total from the Danbury Reporter on March 26, 1885 that reported 15" fell in Fayetteville on the previous weekend (the 2nd storm on Mar 21-22)

“The snow was 15 inches deep in Fayetteville and 7 inches in Bennettsville…”
 
I made a pair of maps for the winter storms that struck the Carolinas in mid-March 1885. Looked thru a ton of old newspaper reports, AMS MWR (thanks @Eric & @GaWx), paired w/ NOAA's 20th century reanalysis version 3 for a synoptic overview.

15" fell in Fayetteville in the 2nd storm on the 21st-22nd.


March 17-18 1885 NC SC Snowmap.jpg

March 21-22 1885 NC SC snow map.jpg
 
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Webberweather53 said:
I made a pair of maps for the winter storms that struck the Carolinas in mid-March 1885. Looked thru a ton of old newspaper reports, AMS MWR (thanks @Eric & @GaWx), paired w/ NOAA's 20th century reanalysis version 3 for a synoptic overview.

15" fell in Fayetteville in the 2nd storm on the 21st-22nd.

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Excellent! I think history repeated itself in late March and early April 1915.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I made a pair of maps for the winter storms that struck the Carolinas in mid-March 1885. Looked thru a ton of old newspaper reports, AMS MWR (thanks @Eric & @GaWx), paired w/ NOAA's 20th century reanalysis version 3 for a synoptic overview.

15" fell in Fayetteville in the 2nd storm on the 21st-22nd.

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So the return time on a event like this is only 100 yrs lol.....good thing I was around for the 1985 one since we wont see that again until 2085....
 
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