I'm not sure if I have just become increasingly aware of the ineptitude of forecasts for our area, or if they are actually getting worse, but it is honestly just embarrassing. My forecast map wasn't great either, I had 3 to 5" but I made that map on Tuesday afternoon. Obviously by Wednesday morning it was apparent a large area was getting 6-8". I think previous history of busts and underperformance starts to cloud the judgement of many who have been here too long. That, and I think most are too slow to react to short-term model trends. It's like they made their forecast two days ago and aren't willing to change their minds no matter what the trends are suggesting.
P.S. I think probabilistic forecasting is a joke. It's just a crutch to lean on so you don't have to actually make a forecast and stand by it. Most of the general public just take it as forecasters have no idea what can happen when they start talking about probabilities (from my experience). I also largely feel the same way about ensemble guidance. It's a tool in the long range but really isn't that great, and folks like Fishel treat it like the latest, greatest thing in forecasting. In reality, it's nothing but an average of wrong answers. You can stir a bunch of garbage up in a pot, but it's still garbage. I really feel like as a whole, meteorology is deemphasizing the skill of the individual forecaster, and the forecasts are really suffering for it.
:weenie:
