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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

They forecast for 13-15:1 ratios. Ended up with 24:1.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
322 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Clouds will be on the increase from the west Sunday, so sunshine
will be limited, especially in southeast Missouri. Given the very
cold start to the day and remaining snow cover, figure that the
mid 20s we have forecast may be a bit optimistic, despite south
winds developing over the region.

The 00Z models are now tracking that lead upper-level impulse to
our west Sunday afternoon and evening, but they have not deviated
much with the major clipper system for Monday into Monday evening.
Any precipitation associated with the warm advection limb of the
clipper should stay to our north Sunday night, but we do have
slight chances of light snow along the I-64 corridor just in case
it drops a bit farther south.

The 00Z models are not in perfect agreement in the timing or QPF
yet, but they continue to generate a nice nearly east-west
oriented band of snow moving southward through the region during
the day and possibly lingering into the evening in the southeast.
Mixed in a bit of the slightly wetter WPC QPF and came up with
0.1" to 0.15" of liquid over most of the area. However, far
southern border regions and the western counties in southeast
Missouri may not see much at all.

The precipitation should fall as snow, but temperatures may climb
just enough above freezing in the southern half of the area to
allow for a chance of rain which would be most likely to occur at
the onset with a quick change over to snow. Of course the later
the precipitation arrives in the afternoon, the more likely it may
begin as rain. Anyway with 13:1 to 15:1 snow to liquid ratios,
snowfall totals are generally in the 1-2" range, with the greatest
amounts expected over southwest Indiana. This may require a
Winter Weather Advisory for a portion of the region.

Another shot of Arctic air will overspread the region behind the
clipper and temperatures Monday night will be quite frigid. Most
of the area will be in the single digit above zero, with northeast
sections near zero. Northwest winds will take wind chills down
into the 5 below to 15 below range, with at least the northern
half of the area solidly in Wind Chill Advisory range.
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To go with my UKMET post above for my Midlands friends; it is an outlier with 0.25+ QPF around the region. UKMET has not really backed down from increasing the precipitation each run for 1 1/2 days for the area. Each run is a little bit more.

I feel like to see appreciable snow around here, we need 0.25+
 
Shawn said:
To go with my UKMET post above for my Midlands friends; it is an outlier with 0.25+ QPF around the region. UKMET has not really backed down from increasing the precipitation each run for 1 1/2 days for the area. Each run is a little bit more.

I feel like to see appreciable snow around here, we need 0.25+
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I'm telling ya, lol that jet streak is doing the dirty work
 
SCweather said:
An inch, Shawn. Make it happen.
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Eh, I could get behind 2-3 inches off the UKMET with the precipitation amounts; but again, I dont have any other mapping. Just trying to apply the NAM thermals to the UKMET's precipitation amount.
 
Shawn said:
Eh, I could get behind 2-3 inches off the UKMET with the precipitation amounts; but again, I dont have any other mapping. Just trying to apply the NAM thermals to the UKMET's precipitation amount.
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If you would to do that then like you said, 2-3 inches would fit that. Hopefully the NAM thermals occur. I'm sure we will have to deal with some sort of happy medium that may not end up being that "happy" lol
 
SCweather said:
If you would to do that then like you said, 2-3 inches would fit that. Hopefully the NAM thermals occur. I'm sure we will have to deal with some sort of happy medium that may not end up being that "happy" lol
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Im encouraged by what I noticed earlier, with the Jetstreak at 250mb and the wind structuring. Chris laid it out well too. The GFS, while a bit weaker (resolution, I think) started picking up on the streaking intensity also.
 
Taylor C said:
Paducah NWS has reported a storm total of 8.1 inches. 8.1 inches.
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I just talked to a buddy near there and 8 inches was what he told me too. Obviously unofficial and I'm not sure he could accurately measure, but he's seeing that too, FWIW.
 
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