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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Webberweather53 said:
How would it not translate further east into the Carolinas, it's not a coincidence most of the 0z NWP models just beefed up the QPF over central-eastern NC on the 0z suite in concurrence w/ the higher verification further NW. Sure we've seen over performing storms before but you don't think its a little ridiculous to say the least when there's an order of magnitude more snow than forecast upstream to say that this won't implicate those downstream because it certainly has already for central-western TN & AR. This storm has taken overachievement to a whole other dimension in parts of KY & MO. The excess and poorly forecast precipitation here is associated w/ diabatic heating that generates cyclonic potential vorticity which grows exponentially upscale and amplifies the downstream wave pattern. It does certainly have an effect, and it may be pretty significant given what's happened thus far...
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Not talking about the Carolinas. I said Alabama and Georgia

But yes i agree its stupid how off the models have been so far

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UKMET looked good again, maybe slightly less impressive tho.

Not posting since I'm on my tablet now (I see 1300m did).
 
Webberweather53 said:
How would it not translate further east into the Carolinas in some form or fashion? It's not a coincidence most of the 0z NWP models just beefed up the QPF over central-eastern NC on the 0z suite in concurrence w/ the higher verification further NW. Sure we've seen over performing storms before but you don't think its a little ridiculous to say the least when there's an order of magnitude more snow than forecast upstream to say that this won't implicate those downstream because it certainly has already for central-western TN & AR. This storm has taken overachievement to a whole other dimension in parts of KY & MO. The excess and poorly forecast precipitation here is associated w/ diabatic heating that generates cyclonic potential vorticity which grows exponentially upscale and amplifies the downstream wave pattern. It does certainly have an effect, and it may be pretty significant given what's happened thus far...
Click to expand...

I'm not sure of the validity, but hearing some areas are approaching a foot that surely wasn't forecasted.
 
Webber, where did you see that report of almost a foot of snow in southwest Kentucky? I read a post from about an hour ago on Facebook that said something about 6-8inches being reported. Did you see a report of it being closer to a foot then that because that's not really close to a foot.
 
I noticed on the surface map (as of 3z) a SLP has developed on the arctic front right along the TN/AL border and there's a 1033mb HP situated over the NC/VA border. Could either or both of those features be having an impact on the progression of the arctic front. It's moving south across the Arklatex region a little faster than it is moving SE across states further east.
 

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Taylor C said:
Webber, where did you see that report of almost a foot of snow in southwest Kentucky? I read a post from about an hour ago on Facebook that said something about 6-8inches being reported. Did you see a report of it being closer to a foot then that because that's not really close to a foot.
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Yes, I saw it, I posted it here just a short while ago and Stu Ostro of the Weather Channel (presumably a reliable source of information) posted it in a gif image w/ the radar accompanied by surface observations and it was still snowing hard at the time of the 1 foot observation
 
Weatherlover92 said:
I noticed on the surface map (as of 3z) a SLP has developed on the arctic front right along the TN/AL border and there's a 1033mb HP situated over the NC/VA border. Could either or both of those features be having an impact on the progression of the arctic front. It's moving south across the Arklatex region a little faster than it is moving SE across states further east.
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Are you referring to this feature?


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Hopkinskiville KY getting absolutely crushed right now. Looks like the boundary has stalled with some heavy training
 
Webberweather53 said:
How would it not translate further east into the Carolinas in some form or fashion? It's not a coincidence most of the 0z NWP models just beefed up the QPF over central-eastern NC on the 0z suite in concurrence w/ the higher verification further NW. Sure we've seen over performing storms before but you don't think its a little ridiculous to say the least when there's an order of magnitude more snow than forecast upstream to say that this won't implicate those downstream because it certainly has already for central-western TN & AR. This storm has taken overachievement to a whole other dimension in parts of KY & MO. The excess and poorly forecast precipitation here is associated w/ diabatic heating that generates cyclonic potential vorticity which grows exponentially upscale and amplifies the downstream wave pattern. It does certainly have an effect, and it may be pretty significant given what's happened thus far...
Click to expand...
Hey man, I’m a fan of it happening, sure. But seeing if it will is another thing. I guess we will find out soon enough!
 
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