Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

[TripleJ185]

Yeah, pretty content here in western Athens. 1/4 to 1/2 inch is fine. Pretty to look at and my feral colony had some interesting looks. More than made up from the wedge event last year... Happy that a LOT of people got some of the 'devil's dandruff' (as the snl skit goes). On to the next one!! :weenie:

 

[Brick Tamland]

I know the models can not be taken at face value more than 7 days out, and those storms that show up 10 days out won't happen 90% of the time. But when one pops up 5 days out, and then the models consistently show high totals, it is time to take notice. I guess I should not be surprised with how the local TV mets forecasted the amounts too low for most compared to what the models showed. They are so scared now of forecasting too high.

 

[stormcentral]

But if you're in Bradley on a side road like I am it's still a mess. My kids were sledding on a snow covered road at 4 pm today.

Im off Spring Place we got about 0.25". Yeah roads were sheets of ice though

 

[Arcc]

Ended up with a 3 inch total in Montgomery, which along with 2/12/10 is the most since '93. We've seen two 3"+ snow events this decade, that's crazy and I'm not even counting the 1" events such as 1/28/14 and 12/08/17.

Personally this is right up there with 2/12/10 and I actually may put this at #1 because of the conditions, the fact that it was freezing combined with the wind and the snow sticking to the roads. Also, it was my first time being in the sweet spot of a snowstorm in Alabama.

Congrats, I know it didn't make up for missing the big show in December, but I'm sure the rarity of 3" of pure powder in AL while the temp was in the teens was a good consolation prize.

 

[setxwx]

I know the models can not be taken at face value more than 7 days out, and those storms that show up 10 days out won't happen 90% of the time. But when one pops up 5 days out, and then the models consistently show high totals, it is time to take notice. I guess I should not be surprised with how the local TV mets forecasted the amounts too low for most compared to what the models showed. They are so scared now of forecasting too high.

really it's less about fear than about money... and their careers. If they blow too many forecasts it costs the community/station money, and the reputation of the Tv Station. Sucks, but that's how capitalism works in Corporate America 2018.

 

[Brett]

Ended up with 4.5” of snow and was forecasted 1-2”

 

[deltadog03]

Weren't you the first met down there to mention snow?

I'm not sure but I know there was some Mets here (let me clarify and say in Macon market on the tv ) that thought It was being irresponsible for mentioning that it was possible when the euro was showing it. Lol either way I'm just glad we got some

 

[deltadog03]

Excellent job Deltadog, 1300, and Webber with your forecasts! Impressive!

Thank you. I have learned a lot for you so ty

 

[malak05]

 

[BPATL]

Cool aerial pic of ATL in the snow. This is from a friend of mine who flies traffic helicopters..

 

[Kylo]

Officially RAH records 5.9" for Raleigh. Still can't break through that 6" ceiling but who's complaining, great event.

0.49 of precip to 5.9" of snowfall, SLR > 10:1.

 

[deltadog03]

I'm not sure but I know there was some Mets here (let me clarify and say in Macon market on the tv ) that thought It was being irresponsible for mentioning that it was possible when the euro was showing it. Lol either way I'm just glad we got some

I edited. Some on Macon DMA tv Mets not here on the site

 

[Kylo]

Btw, I think the best forecast from a model I saw for this event was the 1/17 00z Euro. In this situation, driven by strong synoptic scale forcing, the global models (once they caught on at H5) did just as well as the HRRR/RGEM/3km NAM really, and the Euro actually did better.

The Euro has to get some kudos for this storm, it was the only global that had it day 5-6 and it never wavered on an event. It had some model runs that had it weaker but it was stedfast.

 

[Metwannabe]

Final tally 3.75... total for the year 8", not a bad winter at all

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[LovingGulfLows]

Btw, I think the best forecast from a model I saw for this event (at least for NC) was the 1/17 00z Euro. In this situation, driven by strong synoptic scale forcing, the global models (once they caught on at H5) did just as well as the HRRR/RGEM/3km NAM really, and the Euro actually did better.

Yeah that definitely looks accurate for my area and areas around here.

 

[tractor girl]

Kurt Mellish on this winter in ATL:

 

[ForsythSnow]

I think that we can learn that if we deal with a snow hole in N GA due to downsloping, ignore output. Look at the topography and mountain peaks and you will figure out the snow hole dependent on wind direction. Also, it's limited to at most 5 to 10 miles from the peaks. It doesnt go 20 or so miles out like the models advertised.

As usual the GFS was bad, the CMC was late, the HRRR was okay with trends. The NAM seemed alright, and the Euro was okay.

Btw, I think the best forecast from a model I saw for this event (at least for NC) was the 1/17 00z Euro. In this situation, driven by strong synoptic scale forcing, the global models (once they caught on at H5) did just as well as the HRRR/RGEM/3km NAM really, and the Euro actually did better.

Edit: Although it did significantly underpredict totals along the Outer Banks where it looks like 7-10" also fell!

While it did get a better view literally the day of the event and while it was ongoing, I wouldn't call it the best. If it was the best, it would have seen this a day before. When comparing models for skill at a storm, looking at all the runs over time including SR is a good idea, and choosing the run literally a few hours before the storm is like calling the final four in March madness right at the last 8 games. You have to call it before the tournament begins in my opinion.

 

[Metwannabe]

Reports of 9.5" at Kitty Hawk and Kill Devil HIlls this morning, that storm was ripping along the OBX last night..... wow!

 

[SD]

12 this morning, 17 currently...roads no chance

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[Jon]

Btw, I think the best forecast from a model I saw for this event (at least for NC) was the 1/17 00z Euro. In this situation, driven by strong synoptic scale forcing, the global models (once they caught on at H5) did just as well as the HRRR/RGEM/3km NAM really, and the Euro actually did better.

Edit: Although it did significantly underpredict totals along the Outer Banks where it looks like 7-10" also fell!

00z 3km Nam did well too if you adjusted for higher ratios. I was favoring at least a 14:1 ratio so this was 9.8” to 11.2” in the purple area which is largely what I used in my forecast that morning, along with the 00z euro as well.

Interesting though, even in morning updates, totals weren’t adjusted largely at all. The morning of, all I find are 3-5” maps from TV Mets. Anyone know of a TV met who called this early AM?

My argument is Mets focus way too much, and I mean way too much, on WPC probability maps. Probabilities do not work in systems that have the history of over performing and likelihood of higher ratios.

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