night and day changes this run of NAM in a Good way IMHO (H5)
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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)
- Thread starter GeorgiaGirl
- Start date
SCweather
Member
I know all my Columbia folks are happy about that beauty of a band. Man one can only hope that verifies.
Current SREF mean around an inch.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As expected from changes a little earlier in the run, the NAM is trying to cut this s/w off from the main stream flow by 45 hours. If other NWP trend to this, it could substantially increase QPF further east over NC/VA
Psalm 148:8
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Shouldn’t that create more moisture into the system in many areas??
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I mean if the NAM's right its what most are basically hoping for outside of the possible redevelopment places in North Carolina.
Brett
Member
Do you think it can increase for eastern Virginia or just central?
NAM goes BOOM. Gulf tap really helping. Firehouse on full blast
Snowflowxxl
Member
Happy for the people in the south metro and middle GA. Many of them
haven’t seen snow since 2014
haven’t seen snow since 2014
I was thinking the same thing, the changes at H5 are amazing this run. DEF develops more (light) QPF for areas, but also over central and southern potions of AL And GA (run so far)
Per NAM, 85 corridor is going to crushed in NC
Clem282340
Member
Would the moisture increase in South Carolina as well
Ron Burgundy
Member
Chris - do you buy the NGA snow hole? Kinda hard to discount on multiple models.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Looks like the gulf tap is promoting big time Lee side enhancement. Maybe a bigger feature than the costal low
Still tries to dry up the band as it heads east (in NC) but appears to hold together better than the 12z run...
Really hope birmingham doesn’t get into the snow hole. This run wasn’t so nice.
This setup favors the southern upstate more so than DT Greenville. Rightfully so
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12km NAM shows some love to the midlands of SC... The Triad is bullseyed again w/ nearly 4" of snow
To which band are you referencing?
Backend snow for Myrtle Beach
Looks like some of the same areas that jackpotted with the last storm (West TN) will jackpot with this storm as well.
SCweather
Member
The band on the latest NAM, it drops a solid inch or more in the Midlands.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes this would also apply to portions of SC especially those east/southeast of I-85 wrt QPF
SCweather
Member
1 inch is all I ask for. Waiting for Shawn to shoot my hopes and dreams down. Jk man. I know we all want it down here but got to be realistic at the same time with this.
Avalanche
Member
Wonder why the west spine of the apps receives so little with this.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
NAM still showing the sweet spot in the Triad. Euro and UK has it further east. Maybe they'll meet in the middle.
SCweather
Member
NAM 3km filling in better down in SC also vs earlier runs.
Psalm 148:8
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For us learners... what is the net effect of this?
RollTide18
Member
South Central Alabama looking better and better
WXinCanton
Member
To put it in perspective, this is like trying to predict sprinkles to .015 inches of rain. And to get it exactly right is almost impossible, take it easy on the pro's guys.
FFC says if the confidence of snow accumulations increases south of the advisory area, they could extend the advisory south.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
I think the snow hole is slowly closing for us here in N GA. Just have to wait.
Stormlover
Member
Jason Simpson here really has a different map
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The NAM could (& probably should) have dropped much more snow that run but after 48 hours it tried to string the wave out again for some odd reason thereafter even though the wave actually looked better in general to cut-off before then. We saw it pull this crap last night only to eventually succumb to other NWP that were also showing the same short term-trends. The way it's been trending inside 48 hours, we might have an even beefier storm before long on the NAM
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Hope so. Good thing is the trends remain positive and we're still headed in the right direction.
jaymackd3
Member
WAFF vs. WHNT
That jetstreak is responsible for the increase of qpf you see over SC. Also a slight uptick in the amounts for Eastern NC.
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mydoortotheworld
Member
if ATL can't score, hope at least central GA scores. I want the SE to be nearly entirely blue after this event
