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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Jon said:
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Oddly enough it dries it out too at hr75 on 12k nam never makes it out of SC to Eastern Nc...

Trough is weaker at hr75.. not closed off vs 12z and further north.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, shouldn't that make much more moisture on NAM? Looked fairly anemic?
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It definitely could, and often in setups like this that often is the case, we'll find out tomorrow how much more moisture we'll have to work with (if any). We'll lose some to the mountains but the mid-level moisture transport from the Gulf is impressive...
 
ForsythSnow said:
FFC pulled the trigger on up to 1 inch here in a special weather statement.
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FFC is definitely not the conservative office that it was 10+ years ago. If anything, I'd put them on the slightly aggressive side on average. They are and have been for a good number of years totally different from those old days.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It definitely could, and often in setups like this that often is the case, we'll find out tomorrow how much more moisture we'll have to work with (if any). We'll lose some to the mountains but the mid-level moisture transport from the Gulf is impressive...
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What about west of the Apps for places like AL? You think the band will just fizzle like the NAM showed?
 
The reformation into the Midlands of SC and through NC is kind of what the Euro hints at; and an improvement of the 12z look on the (often overdone) simulated radar imagery of the NAM.

Now, while it shows snow; there are some pretty warm temperatures out in front of the band, that give me pause. Maybe a dusting or so.

namconus_T2m_seus_47.png
 
deltadog03 said:
Which tells me we should still being seeing more qpf
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Do you have any thoughts to why this is? I see the 2 streaming N&E, but just can’t imagine that moisture doesn’t pair up,with what’s coming from the NW.

FFC says up to 1 inch in a line from LaGrange to Conyers to Commerce...a bit south of what the latest 12k NAM showed.
 
Shawn said:
The reformation into the Midlands of SC and through NC is kind of what the Euro hints at; and an improvement of the 12z look on the (often overdone) simulated radar imagery of the NAM.

Now, while it shows snow; there are some pretty warm temperatures out in front of the band, that give me pause. Maybe a dusting or so.

View attachment 2875
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Yeah more like rain with a bit of snow on the back end.


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Lame new discussion from Huntsville, but this is about it, so there won't be any Winter Storm Watch coming tonight anyway..
latest guidance has the majority of the precip
developing along/behind the passage of the arctic front, where the
better dynamical lift/forcing are located. QPF amounts adjusted for
snowfall totals are right around 0.5-1.0 inch for most of the cntrl
TN Valley, with the higher amount located from srn mid TN into NW AL.
 
Webberweather53 said:
18z ICON looks considerably worse this run w/ a faster s/w, still better than the GFS/CMC atm
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We take a step forward and then a step back. I don’t know why getting a couple of inches of snow is such an excruciatingly hard thing to do around here.
 
Not sure if we can just toss it. If we did that, we’d be a bunch of hypocrites for honking it’s horn earlier. Got to take all of them in consideration. Except the GFS, the GFS sucks.
 
Been trending great here since yesterday and now it went the wrong way.
 
SCweather said:
Not sure if we can just toss it. If we did that, we’d be a bunch of hypocrites for honking it’s horn earlier. Got to take all of them in consideration. Except the GFS, the GFS sucks.
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Haven’t y’all forgotten the rules? We toss all runs that don’t show what we want to see.

Just kidding..but seriously, toss it.
 
Just have to see what the other model runs show now. Hate this back and forth. Wish we could just have a good trend stay good for once.
 
Posted this yesterday, but it seems like worth repeating today ...

Mods, if you want me to delete, please PM me and I'll do so promptly ...

Folks, Chill.
Model runs are not generated by Divine Inspiration, nor are they scripted by Mathew, Mark, Luke or John ... :confused:

Good luck, but don't spend your life and every 3 hours of it glued to a set of models. Please ... ;)
 
Brick Tamland said:
Just have to see what the other model runs show now. Hate this back and forth. Wish we could just have a good trend stay good for once.
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I can’t remember the last good broad-based big winter storm that trended colder and wetter as we moved in.
 
Unfortunately we have to take the ICON in account lol if we're going to credit high res over the regular ones. We'll just see if it's a blip later tonight.

GFS looked okay for North Carolina. If I'm not mistaken it has the dual jet representation too but it didn't respond to it at all. Not even close to what it should do.
 
metwannabe said:
Definite decrease
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The decrease in precip is pretty much across the board except in a small area of NC. It looks like there is some missing data in that run. I believe that it is a fluke. No bias here..... my total remained the same. If it is just a fluke, "missing data" issue, the 0z run should be telling.
 
I'll be honest, I'm on the fence with this one. It bothers me that we haven't had like any "honerun" solutions either. I know we are taking baby steps but its been bugging me about this not going to happen. Too many factors against it. I think it's like why are we not developing better qpf with fiarly good dynamics. I guess we shall see
 
deltadog03 said:
I'll be honest, I'm on the fence with this one. It bothers me that we haven't had like any "honerun" solutions either. I know we are taking baby steps but its been bugging me about this not going to happen. Too many factors against it. I think it's like why are we not developing better qpf with fiarly good dynamics. I guess we shall see
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Homerun solution? For areas east of the Carolinas an inch or so is a homerun in this situation . And we've seen a few runs showing what 3-5 I'm NC. Not sure we can ask for more this late in the game
 
Storm5 said:
Homerun solution? For areas east of the Carolinas an inch or so is a homerun in this situation . And we've seen a few runs showing what 3-5 I'm NC. Not sure we can ask for more this late in the game
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I mean for areas outside of NC. Ie euro runs from a few days ago and the GFS run or 2
Trust me, it's all good with an or 2, west of the Carolinas and Carolina will be good even as modeled now. I was just talking about a more widespread light to moderate event like it had been showing
 
Okay everyone.

This is the daily reminder not to glue yourselves to every model run of every model. Overall, things still look okay for North Carolina. I still am fairly confident of at least an inch or two in the Triad.
 
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