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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Nam is a hair east with trough location at 51 hours, probably not a big deal but it looks like the southwest trend with the trough has stopped


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The western part of the line was never continuing, but it does seem like the line is a bit less than it was before.

Looks great for AL west. The NAM'ing continues for them.
 
If this keeps trending in the right direction. We may be good to go in our area. .5 inch on that run and it would be closer to 1-1.5 with higher ratios. Also have the sref going way up
 
shocking...lol drying up as hits GA hr 57. almost nada there for GA or EAST and NE *so far thru hr 57
 
Even though it’s more east on location, it’s more narrow with the trough which means it will likely dig earlier...interesting run as this will be yet again a different snow map solution of heaviest precip


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RollTide18 said:
It's odd though, it seems like the better it looks entering Alabama, the worse it looks exiting Alabama
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If we have the double jet structure with a bit of a gulf tap again it doesn't really make sense for that. I'm being lazy but it looks like the bloom in the east will occur again.
 
radar at 3pm
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Only saw the dual jet structure earlier in the run. 850mb are west in the GOM at 57hr.

Developing SFC low off NC possibly.

One thing I noticed was the northern GL 500mb low was stronger initially vs 12z which may or may not play in the factoring downstream.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If we have the double jet structure with a bit of a gulf tap again it doesn't really make sense for that. I'm being lazy but it looks like the bloom in the east will occur again.
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I spoke too soon, NAM trying to fire up the band again, trend towards Euro

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_45.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Very encouraging to see persistent 40-50+ KT 700 hPa southwesterlies right off the Gulf of Mexico w/o a whole lot of convection near the Gulf coast to block moisture transport into the Carolinas, GA, & VA...
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Yeah, shouldn't that make much more moisture on NAM? Looked fairly anemic?
 
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