Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

[$alt]

For the KCAE guys, outside the temperature problems, the total precipitation is still only 0.05 - 0.08, That is literally only 5-8 one hundredths of an inch. We need more/heavier to stay predominantly snow.

0.25 + is almost a necessity here.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Euro with the snow hole over Atlanta.... wtf. Will be interesting to see what happens

 

[malak05]

Let's wait and see if Euro ensembles call Euro run silly

 

[GaStorm]

Can these snow hole comments go to banter? I would be surprised if it happened exactly as modeled.

 

[Webberweather53]

Allan Huffman's first call forecast snow map. I strongly agree with this in general, if there's any small caveat it's the potential for additional snowfall in the western facing slopes of the mountains.

 

[deltadog03]

I wouldn't worry about the European at this point that much, only because it's not the greatest short-term model. I'm not saying completely throw it out, but rely on more higher-res short-term models for sure

 

[tractor girl]

Can these snow hole comments go to banter? I would be surprised if it happened exactly as modeled.

Why filter out the bad when it's showing on the models. These threads aren't here to cheer on the existence of snow, they are here to discuss weather and the snow hole has shown on models for a while now. It's valid discussion for this weather thread.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Allan Huffman's first call forecast snow map. I strongly agree with this in general, if there's any small caveat it's the potential for additional snowfall in the western facing slopes of the mountains.
View attachment 2965

I think higher totals could come further east like the Euro and UK are showing now. I know the GFS or NAM have the higher totals further west, but also further south than that, while the other one has it further east but north of Roanoke Rapids. Would love to see a large area from Charlotte to Roanoke Rapids with 3 to 6 inches, though. I think that's possible, too.

 

[Storm5]

Interesting EURO run. Very moisture-starved. Opposite from what the Short Rangers are showing.

It was moisture starved hours before 12/8 as well

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

 

[RollTide18]

BMX mentions the possibility of 15:1 ratios and how the forecast amounts could be underdone.

These
amounts do not meet our 2 inch criteria for a Winter Storm Watch,
but impacts to travel are expected to be significant due to
temperatures in the 20s as the snow occurs. With saturated
profiles and efficient snow ratios of 15:1, snowfall amounts could
easily be underdone if models are underplaying the amount of lift.

 

[$alt]

I wouldn't worry about the European at this point that much, only because it's not the greatest short-term model. I'm not saying completely throw it out, but rely on more higher-res short-term models for sure

I put some numbers together from various modeling around the CAE area to keep track of qpf, and so far have this on today's 12z (which is a reoccuring theme so far):

GFS - 0.01
NAM - 0.05
EURO - 0.02 - 0.05
SREF Mean - 0.05
ICON - 0.05 - 0.1

 

[noda-wx]

I think higher totals could come further east like the Euro and UK are showing now. I know the GFS or NAM have the higher totals further west, but also further south than that, while the other one has it further east but north of Roanoke Rapids. Would love to see a large area from Charlotte to Roanoke Rapids with 3 to 6 inches, though. I think that's possible, too.

Care to share what you're seeing that supports the higher qpf totals and location? Curious why you think that

 

[Snowflowxxl]

A dusting here. Yay

That’s more than nothing isn’t it? Keep complaining about not seeing snow, now you get some and it’s not enough. Nice!

 

[Brick Tamland]

Care to share what you're seeing that supports the higher qpf totals and location? Curious why you think that

Just because the models have all shown the higher totals somewhere between Charlotte and Roanoke Rapids in various places. Euro and UK had it between Raleigh and Roanoke Rapids their last runs. If you blend them all it would be somewhere between Charlotte and Roanoke Rapids. Hoping it ends up being that whole area.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

FFC preparing to go for WWA this afternoon per their disco

 

[deltadog03]

I put some numbers together from various modeling around the CAE area to keep track of qpf, and so far have this on today's 12z (which is a reoccuring theme so far):

GFS - 0.01
NAM - 0.05
EURO - 0.02 - 0.05
SREF Mean - 0.05
ICON - 0.05 - 0.1

I hear ya. Let's be honest it doesn't look great for our areas but a dusting will stick to everything if that's what we get

 

[$alt]

That’s more than nothing isn’t it? Keep complaining about not seeing snow, now you get some and it’s not enough. Nice!

While Flo is way too negative and doesn't add much; his pessimism is warranted here because I feel the same for our chances at this point. A dusting, may even be out of the question for his area. Allan Huffman's map alludes to it, and I can't say the map looks too bad around South Carolina.

I'm probably seen as a debbie downer right now, because I just can't get behind this event until something, major, changes my thinking. Columbia, SC are chasing a flurry at this point.

 

[stormcentral]

Euro totally hates MRX southern counties. Ughh i want more then 1" or a dusting. Riding short range!

 

[SCweather]

Nearly every model is showing the same cut off right around CAE. So it looks like the same situation in a way as two weeks ago where CAE missed it to the South, this time we will miss it to the North. What a time to be alive. Lol consistent epic disappointment. Hoping to see some light snow flying around though.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Nearly every model is showing the same cut off right around CAE. So it looks like the same situation in a way as two weeks ago where CAE missed it to the South, this time we will miss it to the North. What a time to be alive. Lol consistent epic disappointment. Hoping to see some light snow flying around though.

Just remember that cutoff was in GA a day or two ago still have a day to go.