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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Kirk Mellish tweet fro about 45 minutes ago
New data from morning weather balloon release starting to come in, most interesting trends: driest NE suburbs in mtn shadow heavier south of #ATLweather and middle #gawx still wide range of amounts from each model smh, either way cold wave won't be denied. More later.
 
Parker said:
ARCC, hate to ask a IMBY post, but what are your thoughts up my way? I seem to be right on the line of where the heavier band may set up (Extreme SW Jefferson county). I feel like you're sitting pretty, I am just hoping I am far enough south to get into the good stuff. I am a bit nervous.
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I don't know, these things are so fickle. I definitely think you are sitting better if you are close to the same areas that December 8th hit, but it may be even farther SE.

Radar is really showing signs of that second band trying to form.
 
1300m said:
I don't like updating my map, but too much evidence not to bump up totals slightly in the highest zone. I also adjusted my colors slightly haha.

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Are you surprised that RAH stayed with 2 inches across the triangle for the noon update? I guess if 4 inches happens they would rather be low then higher maybe.
 
NoSnowJoe said:
Kirk Mellish tweet fro about 45 minutes ago
New data from morning weather balloon release starting to come in, most interesting trends: driest NE suburbs in mtn shadow heavier south of #ATLweather and middle #gawx still wide range of amounts from each model smh, either way cold wave won't be denied. More later.
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Can someone explain to me what even is with them mentioning the mountain shadow? I keep seeing it, but it makes no sense. The moisture is from the SW, not the NW. Only low level flows are.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Latest HRRR looks fantastic for my area just east of Atlanta. Hour 14-16 redevelops the entire band and puts another round of moderate to heavy snow over Atlanta and east/south.
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Yep, I am liking what I am seeing, but I'd like to see more. Would love the jet streak to shift north by about 100 miles.
 

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Arcc said:
I don't know, these things are so fickle. I definitely think you are sitting better if you are close to the same areas that December 8th hit, but it may be even farther SE.

Radar is really showing signs of that second band trying to form.
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Yeah l am trying to hold myself together l think where l am is a very good place:)
 
wrf-arw2_asnow_seus_37.png
 
Wow at the returns in south eastern Texas along the Texas/Louisiana border. They must be getting slammed. So unusual for it to snow that far south. Crazy weather this year!
 
ForsythSnow said:
Can someone explain to me what even is with them mentioning the mountain shadow? I keep seeing it, but it makes no sense. The moisture is from the SW, not the NW. Only low level flows are.
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There is a ~3 degree dewpoint difference in the wedge area compared to the surrounding areas. I don't know how big of a deal that is, but with limited QPF, we can't afford to lose too much saturating the column.

qKYpkHW.png
 
Arcc said:
I don't know, these things are so fickle. I definitely think you are sitting better if you are close to the same areas that December 8th hit, but it may be even farther SE.

Radar is really showing signs of that second band trying to form.
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Someone may get lucky as storms begins to tilt at 500mb and slow down and if your under it I think may get another 2-3hrs of bonus precip
 
From WSFA: The precipitation is going to start a bit earlier, say around mid-afternoon but, temperatures should be well above freezing when that happens, meaning most or all of what falls will be rain for the Montgomery area. But, as cold air rushes in, the rain will transition over to a mixture of sleet and snow, our thoughts on the timing of the snow haven't changed much.
 
I got 1/8" in 30 min within the 15 dbz from 12pm to 12:30pm, so 1/4" per hour rates in the 15 dbz. Current total here in Franklin county AL: 7/16" of snow
 
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