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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Hotty toddy!!!
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000
FXUS64 KBMX 161647
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1047 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Morning Update.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Water vapor imagery and global model data is in good agreement in
a sharp positively-tilted trough extending from Michigan and
extending southwest across northern Indiana through central
Illinois and into central Missouri and further extends southwest
into central Oklahoma.

Toward the surface, an extensive arctic front just north of Mobile
to near Prattville further northeast to near Alexander City and
was continuing to slide southeast.

Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy to cloudy skies across all
but our southeast counties, roughly from Montgomery to Alexander
City and points southeast, where mostly sunny skies were observed.

Radar data shows a large, extensive precipitation shield
consisting mostly of snow that extends from west-central
Mississippi northeast across our west-central, northwest and
northern counties and extends further north and east to include
much of far northern Alabama and into central and eastern
Tennessee.

05

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Despite surface temperatures that have risen above freezing over
the past few hours roughly along and southeast of the Interstate
59 corridor we continue to observe noticable temperature decreases
across our west-central and northwest counties as the
precipitation has started to fall. The main concern continues to
be the risk of snow melting when it comes into contact with road
surfaces and then the moisture will freeze onto the pavement as
temperatures fall below freezing, creating icy patches and slick
spots on roadways. A winter weather advisory remains in effect as
snow will continue affect our northwest counties with snow
eventually impacting more of our central counties early this
afternoon along with portions of our south and eastern counties
this afternoon and evening.

Changes in the overall thinking is not huge. The one difference
is that the area of rain that is developing over southwestern
AL/southeastern MS will move into the southeast ahead of the front
and may provide a brief window of rain before the snow starts.
This will do two things. One it will moisten the overall column
and two it will begin to cool down the airmass ahead of the Arctic
air.

So we are still expecting a significant impact to the area even with
light amounts (2 inches or less). This a slow moving band and will
take almost sort of a staircase approach through the state.
Currently watching another band developing further south in MS
and this will then slide east into the area.

The approaching vort max at 500mb appears very impressive this
afternoon into tonight and will have an opportunity to enhance the
snow band as it moves east of I-59. PWAT values will surge in
this zone, and additional lift could result in snowfall amounts
exceeding our current forecast. The ECMWF, several European
Ensemble members, and the Regional Canadian indicate the potential
for 2-4 inch amounts along and east of I-59 all the way to our
eastern and southern borders. This scenario will be monitored for
a possible upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Impacts could be
significant across our entire forecast area due to temperatures
falling into the 20s and teens as the snow falls. A Wind Chill
Advisory has been issued for the entire area for tonight and
Wednesday morning for wind chills of 5 above zero to 5 below zero.

05/16/87
 
Is it over in North Al barely even snowing now more like a flurrie Toney area
 
Parker said:
Models did show a dryslot just to the NW of Birmingham inbetween Bham and the far NW counties...
Click to expand...

Yes they did, and it seems to have played out exactly like they depicted. Got a VERY light dusting here in N Walker county. Been a depressing snow year here. Snow to the south, snow to the north but not much in between. Hoping for a decent storm here before the winter ends. Probably not likely given this is the second event for AL this year.
 
Catfish said:
Looking forward to see what FFC says-hopefully sooner rather than later...
Click to expand...
Well, with many of the past model runs showing the line disappearing as it enters parts of Ga. and with past experience with clipper type systems, I expect they are waiting to see what happens in Ala, lol. They are no more prescient that the rest of us, and ground truth goes a long way in informing the cautious :) I wouldn't want to call what's going to happen in my back yard based on what's happening out west. Presently I'm at 49, so I expect rain first, and how much will inform me as to what I can expect when the frozen stuff starts to fall. At least it's moving slow, so it has time to get better,...... or worse, lol. That's the fun of systems in the south....blanket situations are rare. Some get the cheese, while some get the trap :)
 
Hopefully for us GA folks, the enchantment will occur just east of I-59 & bulldoze it’s way over this way.

With regard to possible convection, I’ve got filtered sun with a temp of 47.5. I won’t be surprised if I touch 50 before the front arrives.
 
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