I think the thing to watch is how fast the band falls apart as it may signal when and where the second band may form if it does form.
This is just part of KBMX AFD:
This system has been overperforming
across the Memphis and Paducah areas, and with that in mind, we have
raised accumulations across the entire area to the 1 to 1.5 inch
range. A relative minimum seems likely somewhere in the CWA as the
isentropic lift takes a pause before lift increases in association
with the upper-level trough. This minimum may actually occur
across the northwestern part of the area, and the focus could
shift to a second wave farther east in the afternoon and evening.
The approaching vort max at 500mb appears very impressive this
afternoon into tonight and will have an opportunity to enhance the
snow band as it moves east of I-59. PWAT values will surge in this
zone, and additional lift could result in snowfall amounts exceeding
our current forecast. The ECMWF, several European Ensemble members,
and the Regional Canadian indicate the potential for 2-4 inch
amounts along and east of I-59 all the way to our eastern and
southern borders. This scenario will be monitored for a possible
upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Impacts could be significant
across our entire forecast area due to temperatures falling into
the 20s and teens as the snow falls.
