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Miserable March

kinda normal really.. an 80 popping up in March is par for the course. We hit consecutive 80 degree days just last year in February, for the first time in recorded history.

Yeah, but 594 dm heights itself is impressive in September, sfc temps won’t be like that due to it still being March but those heights are something you see in early summer/late summer
 
TWC has a chance of showers here in the forecast from the 14th to the 23rd. That would be miserable. Make it stop!
 
TWC has a chance of showers here in the forecast from the 14th to the 23rd. That would be miserable. Make it stop!
The NWS has at least a 30 percent chance of rain here every day of its 7-day forecast. All I got to say is at least we’re building up the water table now for the hot summer months
 
At least the GEFS has been consistent this winter: 156 of 159 0Z/12Z runs since 12/14/19 verified as too cold in week 1! Note that per the graph below, a good number of these runs were a whopping 15-20 F too cold for week 1! That’s 2-3 F/day, which is awful for a bias, especially in week 1

 
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The guy that about a month ago who was very confident predicting a devastating snow storm for the SE up the Atlantic coast that would either hit at the end of Feb or by March 10 at the latest.... what is he saying now? (and what was his username?)
 
I bet we find a way to wedge this initially. Also this is one heck of a severe set up on the NW edge of the ridge

yeah those troughs swinging north of the SE ridge will probably allow a nice CAD setup especially right as the ridge begins to flex
 
I would keep an eye out for that MCS tomorrow if you Iive in Alabama, especially western Alabama. Most models have it fizzling out over Mississippi but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it hang tough into Alabama at least. Models almost always kill MCSs to early. MCSs can also act in unpredictable ways sometimes.
 
00z Hrrr almost looks like a summer day tomorrow with the precipitation coverage. Scattered showers/storms all across the southeast. Could be a summer preview.CD1CE5B1-1058-423C-904D-8A5E45578062.png
 
Yep, quite similar to a summer day today with convection firing off surface troughs, even the soundings are quite similar to what we see a lot in the summer, big temperature/dew point depressions, dry air entrainment at the mid levels with solid Dcape and a bit of a warm layer at 700mb which we almost always seem to get in the summer CABB3659-85E8-418A-B9AB-DBD8B8EBCFCD.png60468316-12B3-4F77-9A39-7783FC02870C.png
 
As the ridge builds next week, GFS even introduces some typical daytime instability into the SE, sign that summer is getting closer and closer 7FDC709C-42A6-48AF-B7BB-85EFB24E232C.png
 
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