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Pattern Microwave March
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
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I'd feel much better if the GEFS PNA forecast would switch from its current -1 14 day forecast. It is going to be quite difficult to avoid warmth with a solid -PNA (on a cold biased model no less) despite the recent +PNA/-AO/MJO phase 8 combo not having been cold in the SE. I really do think that the MJO may have been too strong and also there's been the the ongoing Indonesian convection supposedly causing what's been effectively a strong phase 4-6, thus dominating the big picture.
Also, it would be nice if the AO were to go back negative and stay there for awhile. The midmonth AO never got down to -2 despite GEFS forecasts of -3, which is typical of the GEFS -AO bias. Today's GEFS forecasts mildly hints at an AO drop in early March after a rise through the end of February. I'm taking the March -AO hint with a huge grain due to this -AO bias.
The one slightly bright spot is that the NAO has recently been verifying slightly negative vs GEFS.
Regardless of all of the above, I still have hopes for some March chill based on two of the three warmest ATL winters on record switching to a cold dominated early to mid March. It is pretty crucial to get the EPS on the side of cold rather than the current mild it is showing for the SE in the 11-15.
Also, it would be nice if the AO were to go back negative and stay there for awhile. The midmonth AO never got down to -2 despite GEFS forecasts of -3, which is typical of the GEFS -AO bias. Today's GEFS forecasts mildly hints at an AO drop in early March after a rise through the end of February. I'm taking the March -AO hint with a huge grain due to this -AO bias.
The one slightly bright spot is that the NAO has recently been verifying slightly negative vs GEFS.
Regardless of all of the above, I still have hopes for some March chill based on two of the three warmest ATL winters on record switching to a cold dominated early to mid March. It is pretty crucial to get the EPS on the side of cold rather than the current mild it is showing for the SE in the 11-15.
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pcbjr
Member
TWC is generally pretty good in the neck of the woods on its LR forecasts; if this verifies, we're into May down here (87º, 88º ??), skipping largely right over March and April 
Larry, we've been duped by the analogs again!!? I thought Feb was going to be rockin, after Dumpy December, and Jockitch January! Looks like we will end in Failed February !
But JB going with the Modoki El Niño for next winter! 17/18 winter will be talked about for decades, hopefully not the reason 16/17 will be!
DadOfJax
Member
80's in March is welcomed in my world....fishing and hunting paradise! Bring it!
pcbjr
Member
what are you hunting (spring gobbler?)? about the only other thing that comes to mind would be skeeters and ticks ... LOL
although i bet the bass bed early this year
Mosquitos already out up here! December to next December, never seen a 12 month summer, till now!what are you hunting (spring gobbler?)? about the only other thing that comes to mind would be skeeters and ticks ... LOL
although i bet the bass bed early this year
Jon
Member
TWC is generally pretty good in the neck of the woods on its LR forecasts; if this verifies, we're into May down here (87º, 88º ??), skipping largely right over March and April
Our friend the SE ridge is stout at the end of the month! Right on top of your backyard
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Bass will be spawning by end of the month, extremely early
pcbjr
Member
BHS1975
Member
The climate is about to jump the tracks.
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whatalife
Moderator
pcbjr
Member
the bouncy type? (LOL & just kiddin')Time to think about what type of popcorn I'm going to put in the microwave March.
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accu35
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Time to think about what type of popcorn I'm going to put in the microwave March.
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On a brighter note, Next winter CAN NOT be as bad as this one has been! Can it???
Side note- Mack I hope you hit 100 at least 20 times this summer........ lol, Carp run with it better in HOT weather.....
Can it??? Side note- Mack I hope you hit 100 at least 20 times this summer........ lol, Carp run with it better in HOT weather.....
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whatalife
Moderator
On a brighter note, Next winter CAN NOT be as bad as this one has been!
Side note- Mack I hope you hit 100 at least 20 times this summer........ lol, Carp run with it better in HOT weather.....
SMH! LOL!
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BF, going in two weeks! They should be running good! The lake water should feel like a bathtub!On a brighter note, Next winter CAN NOT be as bad as this one has been!
Side note- Mack I hope you hit 100 at least 20 times this summer........ lol, Carp run with it better in HOT weather.....
I hear you Mack! good luck send me a picture of that big 30 pounder!!!
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