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Pattern May-hem

Tornado warning for Halifax County, VA. Storm is moving south.
 
SPC Fire Weather Outlook

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/


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... and based on the smell of it outside, almost ever lighter stump in south Georgia and north Florida is burning ... :eek:
 
Upper 80s and low 90s coming here next week, and no rain after Saturday morning as well :confused:. Welcome to summer again lol. Also so much for that Pacific storm it is just fizzling out versus becoming a hurricane like they originally thought.
 
Well, guess there is a chance of severe storms around here today, which usually means there won't be any storms at all around here.
 
SD said:
The storm near Lynchburg has metwannabe special written all over it not to mention the potential morning MCS

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
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I saw that before I passed out for the night (a full dose of Nyquil does that to me) anywho I saw the alerts on my phone where at some point I was under a severe thunderstorm warning but it looked like it just missed to my west. I never heard a thing
 
Just watched Matthew East's daily video and he talked about the storm system for tomorrow being complex and difficult to forecast. Anyone else notice lately all the storm systems around here seem to be complex and difficult to forecast? I don't recall it being like this so often with spring and summer storm systems. It really is getting just as hard to forecast them as it is snow storms around here. Feels like the dynamics and parameters that mets use to forecast aren't as reliable and have changed.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Just watched Matthew East's daily video and he talked about the storm system for tomorrow being complex and difficult to forecast. Anyone else notice lately all the storm systems around here seem to be complex and difficult to forecast? I don't recall it being like this so often with spring and summer storm systems. It really is getting just as hard to forecast them as it is snow storms around here. Feels like the dynamics and parameters that mets use to forecast aren't as reliable and have changed.
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Same for the tennesssee. Models struggle up to the 12 hour window it seems like. Most systems either under perform or over achieve SPC forecast
 
Brick Tamland said:
Just watched Matthew East's daily video and he talked about the storm system for tomorrow being complex and difficult to forecast. Anyone else notice lately all the storm systems around here seem to be complex and difficult to forecast? I don't recall it being like this so often with spring and summer storm systems. It really is getting just as hard to forecast them as it is snow storms around here. Feels like the dynamics and parameters that mets use to forecast aren't as reliable and have changed.
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Greg Fishel mentioned this exact thing in a Facebook post the other day (in the third paragraph):


Essentially, the better our forecasting skills get, the better we are able to recognize when they have the potential to go sour, and the atmosphere is complex enough to where that is the case more often than not.
 
I'm going to make it to 90 on a mostly cloudy/cloudy day!? Congrats to me! And tomorrow's storm/rain chances seem to be diminishing! I'm on the JHS bandwagon!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I'm going to make it to 90 on a mostly cloudy/cloudy day!? Congrats to me! And tomorrow's storm/rain chances seem to be diminishing! I'm on the JHS bandwagon!
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Checks radar: oops! Looks like rain incoming today, in minutes! My local met said we would see absol no rain today!!! :(
Guess I need to go back to the weather channel for my info! Should also keep 90 at bay!!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I'm going to make it to 90 on a mostly cloudy/cloudy day!? Congrats to me! And tomorrow's storm/rain chances seem to be diminishing! I'm on the JHS bandwagon!
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I don't think we make it to 90 today because of these clouds. IF they clear out soon we could get close though. Most important to me though, is that these clouds are helping it stay cooler in the house. Bright sun on a tin roof isn't nice.
 
GaWx said:
I'd love opinions on this. How could katl have had a high on 5/5/17 of 56 when the midnight reading for 5/5/17 was 57??

This shows a high of 56 on 5/5/17:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ga/latest.cdus42.ATL.KFFC.html

This shows 57 at 12AM on 5/5/17:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KFFC/1705050403.asus42.FFC.html

Either way it is a record low high!
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pcbjr said:
maybe they did the midnight at 11:59 ... LOL o_O
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BHS1975 said:
Readings are taken about 10 minutes before the hour.
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pcbjr may have been joking but actually had the right idea. Also, BHS was dead-on correct:

From Kyle at FFC: "So here lies the problem. The temperature dropped from 57 to 55 degrees in this hour, and unfortunately, these measurements are not taken exactly on the hour, usually, they are taken a few minutes before. So the 57 F measurement you saw at midnight was actually taken just 8 minutes before midnight and the temperature dropped to 56 before the turn of the hour and then to 55 by 12:52 AM. Since the METARS do not transmit minute by minute data, we can't see the transition firsthand. However, the METARs do record the high and low temp for the full 24 hours of a day, and since the recorded high was 56, the temperature the must have dropped at this site before midnight."
 
GaWx said:
pcbjr may have been joking but actually had the right idea. Also, BHS was dead-on correct:

From Kyle at FFC: "So here lies the problem. The temperature dropped from 57 to 55 degrees in this hour, and unfortunately, these measurements are not taken exactly on the hour, usually, they are taken a few minutes before. So the 57 F measurement you saw at midnight was actually taken just 8 minutes before midnight and the temperature dropped to 56 before the turn of the hour and then to 55 by 12:52 AM. Since the METARS do not transmit minute by minute data, we can't see the transition firsthand. However, the METARs do record the high and low temp for the full 24 hours of a day, and since the recorded high was 56, the temperature the must have dropped at this site before midnight."
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I wasn't joking, just making a point with some hopeful humor! :p
 
pcbjr said:
Lovely day in the neighborhood ...

image6.png



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And just up the road at JAX

Visibilities may be locally reduced to around a mile at
times in this area...but otherwise will be reduced to 2 to 5 miles
with a strong smell of smoke in the air and occasional periods of
falling ash.

Since there's nothing else to forecast that will be falling from the sky....
 
metwannabe said:
And just up the road at JAX

Visibilities may be locally reduced to around a mile at
times in this area...but otherwise will be reduced to 2 to 5 miles
with a strong smell of smoke in the air and occasional periods of
falling ash.

Since there's nothing else to forecast that will be falling from the sky....
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Dante's 7th Circle, the 3rd ring ... raining fire from the sky ... :confused:
 
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