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Pattern May Discussion

.62 last night hoping we can hit with the coastal and the incoming trough Sunday on rain next week looks completely dry right now with low dews and highs moderating from the low-mid 70s to mid 80s. Have to have at least some interest in trying to pinch off a subtropical system next week as well off of the SE coast or NE gulf. Long duration stalled front with NE flow inland typically will at least attempt to spin up
 
.62 last night hoping we can hit with the coastal and the incoming trough Sunday on rain next week looks completely dry right now with low dews and highs moderating from the low-mid 70s to mid 80s. Have to have at least some interest in trying to pinch off a subtropical system next week as well off of the SE coast or NE gulf. Long duration stalled front with NE flow inland typically will at least attempt to spin up
Gfs has slowly shifted precip to along the immediate coast east of I 17 for the coastal.
 

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Looking at the 6z GFS it looks cool(ish) for the rest of the month. Here is a spot check at day 10:

View attachment 135219

But the problem with this setup is there may be folks that score great with precip and others that don't. Here's day 14 total QPF:
View attachment 135220
I'll take it. It also shows the heat cranking after Mem Day, but then that's also the norm. Keep it cool as long as possible, but no matter what, we know the oppressive weather is unavoidable. After that, get me to Sept 1 and I can handle it knowing the sun angle will be getting lower quickly and the Fall change will be coming!
 
I'll take it. It also shows the heat cranking after Mem Day, but then that's also the norm. Keep it cool as long as possible, but no matter what, we know the oppressive weather is unavoidable. After that, get me to Sept 1 and I can handle it knowing the sun angle will be getting lower quickly and the Fall change will be coming!

You know it's gonna be muggy until about mid October.


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No thanks!!

wsi_june-aug_0516.png
 
I'll take it. It also shows the heat cranking after Mem Day, but then that's also the norm. Keep it cool as long as possible, but no matter what, we know the oppressive weather is unavoidable. After that, get me to Sept 1 and I can handle it knowing the sun angle will be getting lower quickly and the Fall change will be coming!
If there was ever a summer for us to be BN this is it I think
 
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