May be?

[BirdManDoomW]

Could see 3 max areas of rain...1 Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, 2) Brushy Mountains near southern Wilkes County 3) OBX

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM has interesting soundings on Monday, hodos are small but are actually solid

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just realized the 06z euro basically showed a triple point setup on Tuesday which would favor supercells, wtf lol

 

[SD]

12z Euro woof

 

[SD]

Unless it isn't able to dig well south this is going to have big rain totals for NC. Still slowing and a little bit south on tne Euro

 

[Webberweather53]

Many areas already going over 2" of rain on this Euro run after the first batch of precip moves thru, likely more where this came from.

 

[Webberweather53]

If the Euro verifies... we're gonna need to rent a boat lol

 

[SD]

If the Euro verifies... we're gonna need to rent a boat lol

Through day 5....upper low is still centered near BNA. Good grief

 

[Webberweather53]

Through day 5....upper low is still centered near BNA. Good griefView attachment 41518

This synoptic setup kinda reminds me a little of that really bad flooding in October 2015 Columbia had w/ an upper low that pivoted over them & Joaquin stayed off shore except cooler SSTs >>> less moist static energy, but still.

 

[ryan1234]

Just realized the 06z euro basically showed a triple point setup on Tuesday which would favor supercells, wtf lol View attachment 41511View attachment 41512View attachment 41513View attachment 41514View attachment 41515

I don't think I have ever seen that look before, at least here in NC. I'm sure we have had triple point set up before, I just don't recall when it was.

 

[SD]

This synoptic setup kinda reminds me a little of that really bad flooding in October 2015 Columbia had w/ an upper low that pivoted over them & Joaquin stayed off shore except cooler SSTs >>> less moist static energy, but still.

Euro really tries to set up that SE to NW fire hose a couple of times.

 

[SD]

UK goes bonkers

 

[Webberweather53]

Today's EPS run is going absolutely ham w/ the rainfall here

 

[Webberweather53]

Widespread 2-4" w/ potential for 6"+ on a 7-8 day ensemble mean. Big yikes.

When it rains it pours.

 

[Webberweather53]

Last 4 EPS runs.

Talk about escalating quickly.

 

[Cadi40]

The setup of the rain totals brings back memories of Florence.

 

[Webberweather53]

Warm, moist conveyor belt of a slow-moving upper low coupled w/ very persistent differential cyclonic vorticity advection and cold air damming is an ideal setup for exceptionally persistent, moderate-heavy rain & coarse gridded NWP models often underestimate its true extent & intensity. The added effect of orographic lift means the western & northwestern piedmont are probably in for a complete deluge if this synoptic pattern holds, widespread flash flooding is becoming an increasingly legitimate possibility.

Very curious to see what the individual members in this EPS run look like, I'd imagine we're gonna see some pretty absurd solutions.

 

[Webberweather53]

Nearly 25% of the 12z EPS has >6" of rain in Charlotte. Yikes.

 

[mbway091]

Last 4 EPS runs.

Talk about escalating quickly.

View attachment 41521

6.9 inches is going to be tough to swallow.

 

[SD]

6.9 inches is going to be tough to swallow.

 

[ryan1234]

Welp, mosquitos have been pretty much MIA (at least here) thus far... this is about to change, for sure.

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol wtf, 5" of rain in just 6 hours?

 

[SD]

Last 4 EPS runs.

Talk about escalating quickly.

View attachment 41521

Lol wtf, 5" of rain in just 6 hours?

View attachment 41525

Fire hose go splash

 

[Myfrotho704_]

To add to the rain/flooding threat, NAM shows a somewhat decent tornado threat Monday with a little wedge boundary in the piedmont of NC.... these boundary setups this year lol

 

[SD]

To add to the rain threat, NAM shows a somewhat decent tornado threat Monday with a little wedge boundary in the piedmont of NC.... these boundary setups this year lol View attachment 41526View attachment 41527

We may end up pinching off a little sfc low along that boundary

 

[Webberweather53]

To add to the rain/flooding threat, NAM shows a somewhat decent tornado threat Monday with a little wedge boundary in the piedmont of NC.... these boundary setups this year lol View attachment 41526View attachment 41527

Yeah! let's throw in a tornado threat too because... 2020!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah! let's throw in a tornado threat too because... 2020!

You should look at the 3km nam, fits the 2020 theme Monday evening

 

[Webberweather53]

To add to the rain/flooding threat, NAM shows a somewhat decent tornado threat Monday with a little wedge boundary in the piedmont of NC.... these boundary setups this year lol View attachment 41526View attachment 41527

Lol excuse me... 2000 j/kg of CAPE at 11pm?

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Today's EPS run is going absolutely ham w/ the rainfall here

Could this be a big rain for Central SC also anyone?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

6.9 inches is going to be tough to swallow.

incredible material ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Mini supercells followed by a QLCS #2020ing

 

[Webberweather53]

Mini supercells followed by a QLCS #2020ing View attachment 41528View attachment 41529

Wouldn't shock me if the new tornado alley that is the I-85 corridor between Greenville & Charlotte finds a way to produce again

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That QLCS on the nam is a big yikes, that’s a good look for embedded mesovortexes

 

[Jessy89]

So I’ll ask again why haven’t a severe weather thread been made for Monday?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM sure loves the piedmont of NC into the upstate of SC, again Tuesday

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Mud

 

[Webberweather53]

So I’ll ask again why haven’t a severe weather thread been made for Monday?


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Why make a thread for Monday when there could be a threat basically the whole week lol

 

[KyloG]

Geez...GSO precip members

 

[Webberweather53]

Geez...GSO precip members

View attachment 41538

It's actually somewhat concerning when the driest members are still showing nearly 2" of rain in Greensboro. This is insane considering that 2" was close to the mean just one run ago.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Geez...GSO precip members

View attachment 41538

Omg!! What it shows for Columbia SC? It’s been dry