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Severe May 7th - 12th Severe weather threat

Z

Zander98al

Guest
SPC outlook for today and the next two days, may bring some active weather to the south.
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Sounding from the Texas panhandle, this is dangerous, sure at 3km winds are more from the SW/SSW, but the backing of winds around the sfc-1km is impressive, 250-400 m2/s2 of ERSH combined with a critical angle like the one on this sounding (94) is dangerous, you got modest sfc moisture, large amounts of SBcape, large sfc-3km CAPE, this is when the llvl jet begins to ramp up, can definitely tell by how strong the 3km winds are 817E594A-DAE8-4F89-822F-E45032D919C9.png
 
18z HRRR has the MCS tracking just north of Dallas tomorrow. Storms could fire up if there’s sunshine in the southern end.
 
For thursdays severe potential. It shows the line moving in during dawn but quickly dissipating as the day goes on. Itll be interesting to see how this unfolds because severe parameters are decent in MS/TN and west alabama according to the 18z 3k nam. It seems LCL heights in alabama will limit any tornado potential as well as less wind shear thankfully.Screenshot_20190507-153802_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190507-153819_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190507-155009_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
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Cell SE of AMA is taking in cells on its inflow side. That’s usually indicative of tornadogenesis, if I recall the NWS tip sheet correctly.
 


If this is the same one, the structure of this supercell was amazing to look at on a stream, definitely don't like the destruction but I liked looking at that. Still streaming the same guy, if you have to type it in it's livestormchasing.com/stream/robert.pack.
 
That thing is trying to come down so hard. But nothing is happening. Good thing it lifted before it hit Tulia because there is hardly anything between there and Palo Duro.
 
There's a ton of oil-related industry around Ft. Stockton. Might get some unconventional damage reports.
 
Looks like a strong tornado may be on the ground in TX panhandle. With a CC dot. Looks like the city of Howardwick took a direct hit. Screenshot_20190507-193325_RadarScope.jpgScreenshot_20190507-193330_RadarScope.jpg
 
This is the storm spc mentioned in the mesoscale discussion. And its countinuing to intensify. Screenshot_20190507-193816_RadarScope.jpg
 
Oops, didn't see a thread for the threat. I would have posted the chaser feeds in here.
 
The 00z long range HRRR run is incredibly fast compared to other models. By about 12 hours. ? but it also looks a lot more volatile. With redevelopment later. After a decaying MCS moves through.
 
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mets nailed the MCS this morning. We are now in the cold pool. No way we get severe tonight.

Damage picks starting to come in from Rocky. Wouldn’t be surprised if it got an EF1 or EF2
 
Looks like a line of nasty storms will effect MS/AL tomorrow. SRH helicity is around 200-300 so it looks like isolated spin ups will be a possibility within the line. HRRRSE_prec_radar_023-1.pngHRRRSE_prec_radar_027.png
 
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