day 3
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Geez I hope the NAM 3km is wrong, sounding on Sunday would support very large/damaging hail, large CAPE, especially at the the HGZ, pretty cold 500mb temps/steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, moderate amounts of 0-6km bulk shear, I mean the SHIPs speaks for itself 
reposted here since I saw the other thread ends today, lol
reposted here since I saw the other thread ends today, lol
It usually is! This just looks like a sloppy set up, lots of slop showers and clouds to not allow a lot of destabilization, either day, IMO
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
day 3
I bet it'll just be mainly rain here this weekend...again.
Yeah it’s one of those warm front type things, so your probably right, lots of clouds/showers or even elevated convection, haven’t seen a bad hail storm since May 24th, 2011, got golf ball sized hail with that, saw some penny sized hail days ago
Probably, wake county avoids everything, especially the southern part, got hail here a few days ago while y’all whiffed
Hope it was ok to do so but I changed the title to include Sunday as well and moved the post from the May thread back over here. I know 5 days is a long time for a thread but severe weather threads in the south are far more different then winter threads. Besides I figured @pcbjr would appreciate the fact that another thread isn't started for the Sunday threat. 
pcbjr
Member
I'll bite my tongue ... LOL ... In all seriousness, no prob keeping up Wiki, just sometimes it seems that threads get started for far less than significant events ... but Wiki will stay current ...Hope it was ok to do so but I changed the title to include Sunday as well and moved the post from the May thread back over here. I know 5 days is a long time for a thread but severe weather threads in the south are far more different then winter threads. Besides I figured @pcbjr would appreciate the fact that another thread isn't started for the Sunday threat.
The idea of merging and extending a thread, as done here, makes imminent and eminent sense!
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Hmm, if the hrrr was to hold, a few isolated spin ups would be possible tommorow, especially with backing winds around sfc-1km like this, llvl shear is weak tho, so multicellular clusters would be more likely, even if CAPE lacks a bit, likely gonna put down some heavy rain tho with large PWATs, I’d take it at this point 
Nam 3km still hinging on a large hail threat in parts of NC/SC sunday, plume of steep mid level lapse rates with some surface heating + large low level moisture is the reason for large cape based off the Nam, even if cloud cover was to never break up, 1000-2000 jkg of SBcape would still be likely, the thing tho is that this sounding is saturated 
The backdoor front needs to be watched this weekend for some spin ups as well. Any west to east moving storm that can ride along that boundary will have a tendency to rotate
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That’s never good at 2am..
BHS1975
Member
Shaggy
Member
A couple solutions get it into the area and needs to be watched for eastern NC. This is from morehead city overnight disco.
11/00Z NAM/GEM_regional has
backdoor cold front dipping into the nrn tier of counties and
Albemarle sound by Sunday evening, and if this happens, we may
see a tornado risk develop with decent helicity vals in place in
vcnty of the stalled front. The EMCWF/GFS keeps the front to
the north of the VA/NC border.
Yeah, the Nam has it enhancing llvl shear/ESRH and curving/lengthening hodos, can kinda see the axis on the STP 
Got this interesting line of storms that looks like it’s bowing out a lil north of Greenville SC, lets see what it can do, maybe it could start more storms to it south if it collapses
Likely a beastly shelf cloud with this 
They should hoist a flood watch for my area!?