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May 6-10 Severe Weather Outbreak

Triplephase93 said:
Could that last line become a derecho?
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Arcc said:
I think the Derecho threat is gonna come Thursday night. Nasty MCS showing on other CAMs with surface CAPE of 2000-3000 even during the over night.
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For I-20 North into Tennessee I think the main threat will be overnight into the early part of tomorrow afternoon.

Thursday night MCS seems really conditional even for areas to the south. I don't see much support on the 3K NAM, HRRR, or RGEM for an organized convective line but maybe I'm missing something
 
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DISCUSSION...An outbreak of supercells is underway from the Ozark
Plateau across the Mid-MS and Lower OH into the TN Valleys. These
storms will remain capable of producing tornadoes, large to very
large hail, and damaging winds for the next several hours. Greatest
tornado threat in the next few hours should be focused within three
regimes. One along, the residual outflow that extends in a
west/east-orientation across southern MO. The second with the
long-lived supercell cluster along the tight buoyancy gradient over
far southern IL into western KY. And the third area across middle TN
into south-central KY, where the strongest low-level shear exists
near/north of the modified convective outflow from earlier today.
The southern/eastern extent of the supercell development in the TN
Valley will likely necessitate additional tornado watches this
evening.
 
jrips27 said:
For I-20 North into Tennessee I think the main threat will be overnight into the early part of tomorrow afternoon.

Thursday night MCS seems really conditional even for areas to the south. I don't see much support on the 3K NAM, HRRR, or RGEM for an organized convective line but maybe I'm missing something
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t trust the 3km NAM at all with convection. Ever since they nerfed it several years ago it went from being crazy with convection to showing mostly too little. Both WRFs and the FV3(which has done pretty good) show a strong MCS and associated meso low hitting central AL after dark. An Enhanced risk is also in effect now for that time frame. Now track of the MCS is completely up in the air.
 
Some huge hailers ongoing in Tennessee. Clarksville just had a golf ball to baseball sized hail core move through
 
Arcc said:
I wouldn’t trust the 3km NAM at all with convection. Ever since they nerfed it several years ago it went from being crazy with convection to showing mostly too little. Both WRFs and the FV3(which has done pretty good) show a strong MCS and associated meso low hitting central AL after dark. An Enhanced risk is also in effect now for that time frame. Now track of the MCS is completely up in the air.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the heads up. I now see this as well in the SPC disco

With time, the damaging wind risk will increase as clustering
occurs. Most guidance generates an eastward propagating MCS from
the east TX cluster, moving across northern LA into MS/AL during the
evening/nighttime hours. This activity is expected to move along the
gradient of strong to extreme instability across this region ahead
of the southeastward progressing cold front. Some potential will
exist for significant gusts (to near 75 mph).
 
jrips27 said:
Thanks for the heads up. I now see this as well in the SPC disco

With time, the damaging wind risk will increase as clustering
occurs. Most guidance generates an eastward propagating MCS from
the east TX cluster, moving across northern LA into MS/AL during the
evening/nighttime hours. This activity is expected to move along the
gradient of strong to extreme instability across this region ahead
of the southeastward progressing cold front. Some potential will
exist for significant gusts (to near 75 mph).
Click to expand...

Pretty impressive also is the hatching of the wind risk. It’s been a while since we had a Derecho travel across AL.
 
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