Hate me for saying it but that would be kind of awesome if that retrograded all the way to us
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May 2021 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Hate me for saying it but that would be kind of awesome if that retrograded all the way to us
looking at H5 spaghetti plots for the gefs and still on every member its to our east, actually was a warmer run, i am getting concerned tho it’s getting to close
There's a happy medium in this where we can get a stalled backdoor front with highs 85-90 and storm chances. I want that
This is really cool...probably a weak convergent axis over us too
D10 timeframe leaning warmer on the GEFS 
Glad the euro didn’t go far west with the cutoff, but did trend to one out in the Atlantic, I’d be much more scared if this was hour 160 
45 this morning, so not another record, but we blew through Greensboro’s low of 52.
Oh my...
Tornado Warning
TXC113-161945-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0019.210516T1908Z-210516T1945Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
208 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
North central Dallas County in north central Texas...
* Until 245 PM CDT.
* At 208 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near University Park, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Garland around 225 PM CDT.
Richardson around 230 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Buckingham.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.
&&
LAT...LON 3298 9664 3285 9677 3289 9682 3299 9680
3299 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 208DEG 25KT 3289 9677
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
$$
92
Tornado Warning
TXC113-161945-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0019.210516T1908Z-210516T1945Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
208 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
North central Dallas County in north central Texas...
* Until 245 PM CDT.
* At 208 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near University Park, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Garland around 225 PM CDT.
Richardson around 230 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Buckingham.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.
&&
LAT...LON 3298 9664 3285 9677 3289 9682 3299 9680
3299 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 208DEG 25KT 3289 9677
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
$$
92
BTW, the Byron Nelson (PGA Tournament) is currently taking place in McKinney, TX.
Not sure if there's a delay though.
Not sure if there's a delay though.
Dayum EPS Is hot
SPC has upgraded much of the DFW Metroplex to a Slight Risk, with a 5% chance of a tornado...
SPC AC 161951
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are once again expected across
portions of the central and southern Plains late this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts are the most likely risks.
Tornado probabilities have been increased to 5%/Slight Risk in parts
of north-central Texas, including the DFW metro area. Earlier this
afternoon, a few weak/brief circulations were noted on KFWS radar
along with reported brief touchdowns with the most organized storm
now in Ellis County. Current radar imagery continues to suggest some
potential for this activity to continue for a few hours. TDFW and
TDAL VWP data continue to show semi-enlarged low-level hodographs. A
couple storms, should they organize, west/south of the metro area
may see similar potential for a brief/weak tornado given some
heating ahead of that activity.
Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged.
SPC AC 161951
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are once again expected across
portions of the central and southern Plains late this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts are the most likely risks.
Tornado probabilities have been increased to 5%/Slight Risk in parts
of north-central Texas, including the DFW metro area. Earlier this
afternoon, a few weak/brief circulations were noted on KFWS radar
along with reported brief touchdowns with the most organized storm
now in Ellis County. Current radar imagery continues to suggest some
potential for this activity to continue for a few hours. TDFW and
TDAL VWP data continue to show semi-enlarged low-level hodographs. A
couple storms, should they organize, west/south of the metro area
may see similar potential for a brief/weak tornado given some
heating ahead of that activity.
Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged.
Actually getting a good peak of the sun now.
Well that's looking like a massive bust
000
NWUS54 KFWD 162004
LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1115 AM TORNADO 5 WNW TROY 31.23N 97.38W
05/16/2021 BELL TX EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED MINOR DAMAGE FROM A
BRIEF TORNADO ALONG WILLOW GROVE RD BETWEEN
MOODY RD AND FRANKLIN RD. SOME OUTBUILDINGS
AND CHICKEN COOPS DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
$$
NWUS54 KFWD 162004
LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1115 AM TORNADO 5 WNW TROY 31.23N 97.38W
05/16/2021 BELL TX EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED MINOR DAMAGE FROM A
BRIEF TORNADO ALONG WILLOW GROVE RD BETWEEN
MOODY RD AND FRANKLIN RD. SOME OUTBUILDINGS
AND CHICKEN COOPS DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
$$
Something to keep in mind as we look at the temperature maps for next weekend... the EURO/EPS have in past years have had a tendency to be too warm when it comes to modeling heat over the southeast. I can recall a number of times, including May 2019, that they were putting out 104-107 degrees heat 5-7 days out and things actually ended up verifying 6-8 degrees lower. I certainly do think we get hot at the end of the week and the weekend and expect many of us to see our first 90 degree temperatures of the year which we will be right around the date we should expect it. However I would not expect anything too crazy like mid 90s+. I’m just looking forward to the warmer nights so my pool water can really start warming up.
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Rain ! Come to daddy 
This is gold:
Trend stopped... whew 